According to GlobalData, the Western Europe car market picked up in February. Good. The PV selling rate rose to 12.8 million units/year in February, with 870k vehicle registrations. Compared to 2023, February grew by 8%, helped by strong year-on-year (YoY) growth in France and Italy, along with solid improvements in other major Western European countries. However, compared to pre-pandemic February 2019, the PV market is down almost 17%. The market is forecast to pass 12 million units in 2024, the highest total since the onset of the pandemic. The German PV market performed well in February with 217k vehicle registrations, 5% higher YoY. Year-to-date, Germany has made good progress though early 2023 was a weak base for comparison given the government’s lowering of incentives on xEVs from the start of last year. The other major west European countries also performed well YoY thanks to a more supportive supply environment. We continue to forecast growth this year, even though the macroeconomic outlook appears mixed across the region. For now, at least, households continue to face high interest rates and elevated vehicle pricing. However, with supply issues fading, we see pricing as likely to ease over the course of the year. Geopolitical risks could yet challenge this outlook, either directly through some form of supply disruption, or more broadly through keeping inflation elevated and slowing interest rate cuts.
Hydrogen
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WAE Technologies has recently unveiled its R&D programme which highlights the use of hydrogen as a viable energy option for automotive. Decarbonisation, reducing the carbon footprint and opting for alternative, cleaner fuel is at the top of the agenda for automotive OEMs. With many switching to the production of EVs over ICE vehicles, others are looking further ahead. Technology and engineering service business, WAE Technologies (WAE), revealed its latest hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle innovation at CENEX Low Carbon Vehicle (LCV) Show. Named EVRh, the platform concept is capable of discharging 430kW of power. Combined with the 120kW hydrogen fuel cell, EVRh has a total output of 550kW. The vehicle platform has been developed to showcase the potential of hydrogen as a fuel for the automotive industry, utilising an H2 fuel cell system, to produce electricity through a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen in a fuel cell stack. We spoke to Sam Dew, project engineer, battery integration, WAE Technologies, to discuss the EVRh and what it could mean for the industry.
Apple’s EV ax(e)
Apple’s decade long electric car development has come to an end after years of delays and setbacks, pivoting towards AI. Its ong-running electric car programme has been cancelled after a decade of development. Codenamed Titan, the project began in 2014 and was confirmed the year after. After years of delays – the original shipping target was 2019 – the company appears to have finally accepted that the sunk cost is lower than the potential for even longer delays in an increasingly competitive market. Why build a car? On the face of it, Apple’s green light was perhaps more surprising than the decision to scrap it. It is after all a technology company that, at least in 2014, was more focused on software and design than in-house manufacturing. Cars, even ones with artificial intelligence (AI) features and batteries, are a far cry from the phones and laptops for which the company is known. There were however a few key market considerations that made the project less far-fetched than it sounds.
AI at tipping point?
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By GlobalDataThe various potential benefits of using artificial intelligence (AI) within businesses have been widely discussed, but industries have in large part been waiting for the technology available to catch up with the claims of what it will be able to achieve. While tools based on OpenAI’s ChatGPT large language model (LLM) have proliferated and businesses in various sectors have begun creating task-specific models trained on their own materials, the technology remains nascent and is yet to become ubiquitous or wholly revolutionary. It is widely accepted that these things will happen, though. In a survey of 386 people as part of GlobalData’s Tech Sentiment Polls Q4 2023 across its network of B2B websites, 92% responded that AI would either live up to all of its promise or that it was hyped but that they could still see a use for it.
Women and COTY
Noted for being a male dominated industry, the Women’s World Car of the Year organisation aims to reinforce female presence in the automotive sector. In today’s automotive world, women occupy around 25% of jobs in the sector. Alongside this, many notable award organisations do not have female members on their panels. Back in 2008 the prestigious New York-based ‘World Car of the Year awards’ had 45 jury members on the panel. However, not one panelist was a woman. Formed in 2009 to change the gender imbalance status quo, the Women’s World Car of the Year organisation highlights the role of women in the automotive industry – alongside selecting the best cars of the year. Voting criteria are based on the same principles that any upcoming buyer would consider, such as safety, price and driving experience. This year, the Kia EV9 was voted Supreme Winner of the Women’s Worldwide Car of the Year. Last year, Tina Vujanovic, Nova.rs’ executive editor automotive, was appointed to the jury, a notable appointment due to this being the first time that Serbia has been represented in the jury. We spoke to Marta Garcia, executive president of Women’s World Car of the Year to learn more about the organisation’s history and aims.
Data snap
Some grounds this week for a half-full, rather than half-empty, glass. As the early part of the year progresses, it’s becoming clear that the sharp market rebound of 2023 – which helped lift profits across the industry – is fading rapidly. That’s good news in terms of manufacturers being able to get their products out to customers, of course. Transaction prices will also be edging down and inventory levels gradually replenished. It also means we’re back to underlying demand conditions, rather than exceptional supply-side factors, being the main determinant of global automotive market size. In its latest analysis, GlobalData (Just Auto parent company) says the global light vehicles (LV) production outlook for 2024 remains broadly on track with the aggregate full-year forecast remaining virtually unchanged on the previous one (91.4m units, +0.6% YoY).
Nio expanding…..
Nio plans to launch a new mass market brand this year to target lower cost segments to lift sales and economies of scale. The automaker so far has targeted premium BEV segments with vehicles priced from US$46,000 to compete with global BEV leader Tesla, but more Chinese automakers are now moving into lower segments to drive up demand. Nio sales fell 12% to 18,200 vehicles in the first two months of 2024 after volume rose 31% to 160,000 in full year 2023. Cumulative sales since startup are 468,000.
…and loses
Unfortunately, Nio’s latest financial results show it remains heavily loss-making, in part a consequence of a price war in China. Nio recorded a net loss of RMB5.4 billion (US$756 million) in Q4 2023, representing a decrease of 7.2% from Q4 2022 and an increase of 17.8% from Q3 of 2023. Total revenues for the full year 2023 were RMB 55.6 billion, with around RMB 49 billion vehicle sales.
Tesla plug pulled
Tesla has said its gigafactory in Germany is expected to have no electricity until 17 March 2024. The site was evacuated earlier this week and production halted after the plant was left without power after a suspected arson attack on a nearby electricity pylon. The so-called ‘Volcano Group’ claimed responsibility. It is an activist group reportedly focused on environmental issues. In a statement to a German newspaper, a Tesla spokesperson said: “The plant is expected to be without electricity until the end of next week.”
BYD going cheap
While European automakers can only talk about a EUR20,000 EV, BYD has cut the price of its cheapest car in China, the Seagull, by 5%. It now starts at CNY69,800 (EUR8,865; US$9,700). BYD had become a “relentless discounter” in the price war started by Tesla China last year which had led to it dethroning its rival as the globe’s biggest seller of electric vehicles. A series of 2024 price cuts included a 12% drop for the Yuan Plus crossover [aka Atto 3 for export].
Stellantis JV is go
The proposed joint venture which would allow Stellantis to build and sell Leapmotor electric vehicles outside China has received approval from a Chinese regulator, according to Reuters sources. China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved the joint venture but the deal was still waiting on regulatory approval in other markets, according to a news agency source. Stellantis had said last October it was buying a 21% stake in Leapmotor in a US$1.6bn deal and announced the joint venture.
Forecast good
In its latest analysis, GlobalData says the global light vehicles (LV) production outlook for 2024 remains broadly on track with the aggregate full-year forecast remaining virtually unchanged on the previous one (91.4m units, +0.6% YoY). GlobalData analyst Justin Cox says that following on from relatively strong growth in 2023 (+10.3% YoY), a pause in the global LV production recovery during 2024 reflects the industry’s exposure to the more realistic underlying demand environment. “The global economy is expected to experience a soft-landing following the period of tight monetary policy and higher inflation,” Cox maintains. “Nevertheless, the cushion of backlog orders and inventory replenishment has been increasingly eroded,” he continues. Cox also says price impacts from the shipping disruption in the Red Sea are expected to have a modest upward effect upon inflation – particularly in Europe – but weaker energy prices will provide some offset.
Have a nice weekend.
Graeme Roberts, Deputy Editor, Just Auto
