In its latest analysis, GlobalData (Just Auto’s parent company) says the global light vehicles (LV) production outlook for 2024 remains broadly on track with the aggregate full-year forecast remaining virtually unchanged on the previous one (91.4m units, +0.6% YoY).

GlobalData analyst Justin Cox says that following on from relatively strong growth in 2023 (+10.3% YoY), a pause in the global LV production recovery during 2024 reflects the industry’s exposure to the more realistic underlying demand environment.

“The global economy is expected to experience a soft-landing following the period of tight monetary policy and higher inflation,” Cox maintains.

“Nevertheless, the cushion of backlog orders and inventory replenishment has been increasingly eroded,” he continues.

Cox also says price impacts from the shipping disruption in the Red Sea are expected to have a modest upward effect upon inflation – particularly in Europe – but weaker energy prices will provide some offset.

Regionally, China’s LV output is at record levels. “Volume support is set to switch towards exports, through the medium-term, as scope for continued aggressive domestic demand-led output growth in China begins to slow,” he adds.

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