Note from the editor
Readers of this feature are asked to refer to more recent analysis:
Ford Puma ST Powershift – UK’s No.1 now even better
Ford’s piston-powered future
Ford’s Future Next-Generation Models, Platforms
In contrast to the Volkswagen Group, TMC, GM, HMG, Renault-Nissan-AvtoVAZ-MMC, Honda Motor, FCA and other major OEMs, Ford Motor Company will soon be building almost all of its vehicles on a handful of architectures. This first of two analysis pieces looks at the Dearborn-based firm’s plans for the A-E car, SUV, crossover, minivan and pick-up segments. A close look at future big pick-ups and SUVs, plus plans for Lincoln, will follow.
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By GlobalDataFocus on Focus
A major part of FoMoCo’s strategy begins with the arrival of C519. This, the fourth generation Focus, will appear in just a few months’ time. The global model will be manufactured in Mexico (Cuautitlán), Germany (Saarlouis), China (Chongqing), Thailand (Rayong), Russia (Vsevolozhsk), and Argentina (Pacheco), commencing in the fourth quarter. Of major interest from a manufacturing point of view is the decision to move North American production out of Michigan Assembly and into Cuautitlán.
Like the current model, Focus IV should have a six-year lifecycle in the world’s main markets. The fresh architecture will have both front- and all-wheel drive capabilities, plus EV/PHEV compatibility. Expect sedan, five-door hatchback and estate/wagon bodystyles plus a long-wheelbase car for China and selected other markets. There will also be a replacement for the Focus Electric.
The new platform will arguably be Ford’s most important architecture, given that it will become the basis of so many cars, crossovers and SUVs. It should be built in standard and evolved form for more than 15 years.
Taking on the Prius and Ioniq
Amongst the multiple future vehicles for the Focus platform are three related models: C240, C430 & C727. These are expected to be rivals for the standard, hybrid and PHEV versions of the Hyundai Ioniq, as well as for variants in the Toyota Prius range.
Ford was understood to have been planning to build this additional model at Wayne Assembly in Michigan at the rate of around 120,000 units per annum. Job 1 was due in late 2018 for North America’s 2019 model year. For that region, the model will be the effective replacement for the C-MAX series. It should be manufactured at either an expanded Cuautitlán or the future San Luis Potosí facility. As for the vehicle’s name, ‘Model E’ is said one of the front runners.
Does the coming of the Model E mean that the third generation (C381) C-MAX and its long wheelbase Grand C-MAX derivative have been cancelled? No, not in Europe at least. These are due to enter production at Saarlouis alongside the Focus towards the end of 2017. Both variants will use the same architecture as the Focus.
Compact minivans and SUVs
In North America, the C-MAX is sold only as a petrol-electric (C-MAX Hybrid) and a plug-in (C-MAX Energi). As neither has sold well, these are unlikely to be directly replaced, with Ford believing that the Model E series will be far more successful.
We won’t see the next Escape/Kuga/Yihu triplets until mid-2018 but these will also switch over to the new generation FWD/AWD architecture. C482 is due to be released first in North America, to be followed by Europe (Kuga) and China (Yihu). Production locations are yet to be confirmed but Louisville will be the lead plant, and should be followed by Valencia/Almussafes (Spain), Chongqing, Chung Li (Taiwan) and Elabuga (Russia).
Escort: Ford’s Chinese market master stroke
We shouldn’t forget about one other C segment model, a car which is presently restricted to China. The Escort, a long wheelbase version of the Focus sedan, is manufactured alongside the latest generation model (the older generation model is also still made in China) by CAF, the company’s joint venture with Changan Auto. Production commenced in November 2014 and will likely continue until a replacement arrives in 2021.
This vehicle is most of the reason why Ford China has overtaken Nissan, selling 364,776 passenger vehicles during the first five months, versus the Japanese firm’s various JVs’ 326,607. In May, the Ford brand was in ninth position behind Haval and ahead of Kia, with the Escort’s 21,010 deliveries accounting for fully two fifths of all Ford registrations during the month. And in a market where the supposed latest wisdom is that SUVs are what everyone wants, take note that this sedan was the tenth best seller, up 38% (overall sales rose by 11% YoY). In fact, eight of the top ten models were four-door cars, with the Wuling Hongguang the sole minivan and the Haval H6 the single SUV.
There might eventually be exports of the Escort, with markets in Central Europe a possibility. The car might also be built in India – Ford Australia continues to develop this vehicle programme: right-hand drive prototypes have been seen testing.
Can a nine-year old Fiesta be an easy sell?
The next 12 months is going to be a very busy time for the Dearborn-based company as it begins making not only major new models in the C/Compact segments, but also in the class below this. Why on earth has Ford put itself in this position? The Fiesta is an elderly car and if its successor doesn’t finally hit the market in 2017, the next VW Polo will surely eat it alive in Europe. Concerns about the hugely indebted economies of the four national markets which make up the present United Kingdom seem likely to increase, and that’s not good news for the Fiesta, Ford’s long time number one model.
In polite terms, the decision taken some years ago to keep building the sixth generation car for nine years is a curious one. Admittedly this is a critical model for no region other than Europe but Ford of Britain’s dealers will be getting anxious over the coming 12 months as trying to keep such an old car selling in its largest market may prove tricky. These retail outlets, and even more so, fleet managers, want to see B479 way before the expected mid-2017 release but they shall have to wait.
Ford’s Indian sales network is also especially keen for a new Fiesta, with the sedan, said to be codenamed B500, due to be an import to the subcontinent this time around. Maraimalai Nagar (Chennai) won’t be the only current Fiesta plant to lose the next model: CSAP (Cuautitlán) will also take on other models, as was noted above. So where will cars for North America and India be sourced from? The answer is apparently an expanded Rayong plant in Thailand.
Niehl (Koln/Cologne) will again be the lead global plant for the new model. In June 2014, Ford of Europe told the media that the car would be built at Niehl via a two-shift system. However, a 17 June 2014 just-auto.com news story stated that a third shift might follow.
Next EcoSport going global
Ford’s other major entry in the global B segment will be the third generation EcoSport. The current B515 model is good enough but not great. EcoSport take three will have to be a properly global model, in all the ways which B515 isn’t. Due out in 2019, the main production locations should again be Brazil, China (local name: Ford YiBo), India and Thailand, with assembly in Russia too. Romania also seems a strong possibility as the source of supply for European markets. It might be manufactured in Mexico too, with exports from there to the US and Canada: Ford can’t continue to allow American Honda, GM and FCA to own this segment in its home market.
Future Mondeo/Fusion, Mustang, Taurus and larger SUVs
CD542 will replace the Fusion and its Mondeo twin from 2019. It should appear first in North America, to be followed soon after by the Mondeo in China. Europe’s next Mondeo likely will not be seen until 2020. Apart from bodystyle and engine differences – the hatchback and estate won’t be offered in North America and the PRC, and diesel engines probably won’t be either – these cars will be near-identical. They will be based upon an updated CD4 front- and all-wheel drive architecture. Successors for the current cars’ PHEV variants are said to be planned but a next generation hybrid seems less likely.
The Edge SUV only entered production in mid-2015 so even its mid-life facelift is still perhaps up to three years away. The next Edge will appear in 2022 and like the Fusion/Mondeo it will use an update of the current model’s CD4 platform. The same applies to the future S-MAX and Galaxy.
Ford’s people movers should again be manufactured in Spain (Almussafes near Valencia) from 2022, with additional production of the S-MAX in China too. There, the model name is Mai Ke Si, which is more or less a phonetic translation of ‘Max’. Don’t expect that to take place until 2023 as Changan Ford is yet to switch over from building CD340, the previous S-MAX. The latest shape model is C539.
In the E segment, the Taurus presents Ford with a problem. The latest car sells well in China but the previous generation is fading in North America, due not only to the model’s longevity but also the contraction of its segment. FCA has a similar problem with the Chrysler 300, as has Nissan with the Maxima, Toyota with the Avalon though GM’s latest Chevy Impala is doing well.
North America’s next Taurus, if there is one, will most likely be CD4 based. It may even be an import from Changan Ford’s Hangzhou plant commencing in 2017. This 4,996mm long car entered production at the plant in Zhejiang province in November 2015 and has ‘Jinniuzuo’ as its model name. There are three turbocharged EcoBoost petrol engines: 181hp 1.5-litre and 245hp 2.0-litre four-cylinder units, and a 329hp 2.7-litre V6 but most likely only the six-cylinder variants would be offered in the US, Canada and Mexico. However. Ford might simply choose to discontinue the Taurus as a model line in North America.
Far more profitable than the Taurus is the S550 Mustang, which has many years of production remaining, build having commenced not quite two years ago. So expect a facelift in 2018 and the arrival of the seventh generation around 2022. This will stay RWD.
Ka+ and mid-sized pick-up
Let’s now take a look at three other vehicles which don’t fit into any of the segments noted above. The first of these is B562, the A segment Ka+ which should remain in production until 2021 (Brazil, India and likely Romania if it sells well across Europe following its October 2016 release in that region). The replacement will use the more modern platform matrix of next year’s Fiesta.
Many size classes and segments away from the small sedan and hatchback range is the Ranger. Replacing this pick-up is an interesting challenge. While on the one hand Mazda says it won’t turn to its partner TMC and base the next BT-50 on the Hilux, that could certainly happen.
At the moment, the T6 architecture Mazda and Ford twins come off the same line at the AutoAlliance plant in Thailand but the Ford is also made in Argentina and South Africa. AutoAlliance might not make economic sense for the Hiroshima based firm in the 2020s, especially as the Ranger is far more successful and may also be built in North America for its next generation.
Production of a T6 platform model on the North American continent might not have to wait for the next generation Ranger’s scheduled appearance in 2019, either. Ford is said to be planning to bring back the Bronco model name, attaching this badge to a new SUV which would be closely related to the U375 Endeavour/Everest.
Details of a full list of worldwide GM vehicles can be found within PLDB, just-auto’s current and future vehicle database.
The profits powerhouses that are the F-Series and Ford’s big SUVs, as well as what’s ahead for what Ford calls the Lincoln Motor Company will be the subjects of the second and final part of this in-depth look into the future model plans of Ford Motor Company.
