Key economic factors point towards another strong year for the U.S. retail auto
industry in 2001, according to a forecast from the National Automobile Dealers

NADA chief economist Paul Taylor is predicting total sales of 16.3 million
cars and light trucks in 2001, down from 17.4 million last year, but still the
third best year in history.

Taylor said the cooling of last year’s red-hot sales is being driven by fears
of slower growth, higher petrol prices, concern inflation will re-appear and
colder than normal winter weather. He bases his optimistic forecast on recent
moves by the federal reserve to cut interest rates, continued high household
wealth and an anticipated return to more seasonable weather patterns.

"While we’ve been brought back to earth since the fourth quarter of 2000,
the fundamental conditions are in place for a return to strong sales for much
of 2001," said Taylor. "In historical terms, sales of more than 16
million vehicles would be a remarkable accomplishment."

An area of significant sales strength in 2000 was cross-over utility vehicles
(CUVs), jumping 78 percent in 2000.

"CUVs match the needs of a growing number of consumers by combining car,
truck and minivan attributes," said Taylor. "They are stylish, practical
and fun vehicles."

Many of the CUVs resemble mini-SUVs, such as the Ford Escape, Subaru Forester
and Toyota RAV4. Others strike a more unique styling note, such as the Chrysler
PT Cruiser and the Pontiac Aztek.

Taylor made his comments during his annual economic review and forecast at
NADA’s 84th annual convention in Las Vegas.

Other observations by Taylor included:

  • Sales of small cars were up 18 percent in 2000, and should stay at a fairly
    high level in 2001, fueled primarily by new products from Japanese and Korean
  • Luxury car sales were strong in much of 2000, largely due to gains in stock
    market-driven household wealth. Sales for these vehicles climbed 5.5 percent
    from the previous year.
  • SUV sales also gained ground, increasing by 2.2 percent.
  • Mid-size sedan sales dropped by 6.6 percent.
  • Small car sales jumped by 18 percent in 2000, with the most modestly priced
    cars increasing by 54 percent.