New vehicle sales in the United States this month are expected to rise 2% year on year to 1.48m units, and an estimated 15.7m seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book (KBB). KBB’s forecast is almost line-ball with Edmunds.com, which forecast March sales of 1,476,535 new cars and trucks and estimated SAAR at 15.8m.
The projected sales will be a 24% increase from February 2014, and a 1.7% increase over March 2013.
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“Car buyers who chose not to brave the cold weather last month found plenty of opportunity this month,” said Edmunds’ senior analyst Jessica Caldwell.
“Now that spring has arrived, weather conditions shouldn’t have the impact on car shoppers it had at the beginning of 2014, and we’ll be able to get a better sense of the true strength of the marketplace in coming months.”
March 2014 had 26 selling days, March 2013 had 27 and February 2014 had 24, Edmunds said.
It estimated retail SAAR would be 12.6m vehicles in March, with fleet transactions accounting for 20% of total sales. An estimated 3.33m used cars will be sold in March, for a SAAR of 33.9m (compared to 3.06m – SAAR of 33.8m – in February).
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By GlobalDataKBB said First quarter sales were expected to reach 3.68m, down 0.3% year on year. A 15.7m SAAR would make March the 17th consecutive month above 15m and the est March since 2007.
“Following two months of weaker than expected sales, the industry should start to bounce back in March,” said KBB senior analyst Alec Gutierrez.
“Although we aren’t expected to hit 16m SAAR, indications show that consumers are returning to showrooms in spring. The momentum built in March should set the market up for a big month in April. Those consumers that delayed a purchase in January and February [due largely to poor winter werather across much of the country – ed] will find a modest increase in available incentives, which should help to offset gains in average transaction prices.”
Highlights for estimated March sales:
- In March, new light vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,475,000 units, up 1.5% from March 2013 and up 23.8% from February 2014.
- The SAAR for March 2014 is estimated to be 15.7m, up from 15.3m in both February 2014 and March 2013.
- Retail sales are expected to account for 82% of volume in March 2014.
Automakers
Chrysler is expected to report the biggest gains in March at 7.2%, entirely on the surge of both its Jeep and RAM brands. Their gains are continually driven by the popular redesigned Cherokee and the RAM pickup truck, which is up nearly 25% so far this year.
KBB expects Toyota to rebound from the slow start to the year with a big push from Camry and continued strength in sales for the recently redesigned RAV4.
Compact crossovers continue to lead industry gains in March with 15% expected growth year-over-year. The Nissan Rogue, Subaru Forester and Toyota RAV4, all redesigned last year, are leading the way, comprising 70% of the segment’s growth since the beginning of the year.
Vehicle types
“Consumers are opting for compact crossovers at the expense of segments like mid-size cars, which transact just US$1,500 lower,” added Gutierrez. “[We expect] mid-size cars to remain mostly flat in March due to big sales of the Toyota Camry, Nissan Altima and Honda Accord, but demand in this segment in 2014 has been weaker than the previous two years.”
For more KBB and Edmunds data for March 2014, click on Press Release
