US new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) this month are expected to be 887,000 units, down 25.3% year-on-year but off only 3.9% compared with last month, according to Edmunds.com.
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Edmunds also said that the seasonally adjusted annualised running rate would recover to over 10m units, concurring with JD Power’s latest assessment.
Separately, JD Power forecast retail sales of 789,400 units in June, representing a drop of 9% year-on-year but a gain of 14% month-on-month.
However, while retail sales for June have improved from May, fleet sales have declined, JD Power says. As a result, the firm says the June SAAR for total vehicle sales is 10.3m units compared with 9.8m units in May and 13.6m units in June 2008.
“The SAAR is finally back in double-digits,” said Edmunds’ chief analyst Jesse Toprak.
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By GlobalData“We’re still a long way from 16m unit sales but things are moving in the right direction.”
June 2009 has 25 selling days, one more than a year ago. Adjusted for the difference, sales fell 28.3% year on year.
Edmunds forecast a combined monthly market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates of 47.0% this month, up from 46.6% in June 2008 and up from 46.5% in May 2009.
“An interesting note: minivan sales should be up about 12% month-over-month,” Toprak said. “With generous incentives drawing attention to this segment, many families are rediscovering minivans as the most practical and least costly way to transport people and things.”
Edmunds.com predicted Chrysler sales would be off 29.1% year on year to 83,000 units, Ford sales of 147,000 units (down 15.6%) and GM volume off 28.9% to 187,000.
Honda was seen shifting 99,000 vehicles (-31.4%); Hyundai, 67,000 (-14.7%); Nissan, 57,000 (-24.2%); and Toyota 138,000 units (-28.7%).
JD Power said retail sales had “increased notably from May” this month, “indicating tempered but continued recovery in the market”.
But fleet sales declined keeping the June SAAR for total vehicle sales stable month on month versus May.
“Consumer confidence is improving, and market uncertainty is starting to decline, which has made consumers more willing to take advantage of deals on new vehicles,” said JDP auto operations chief Gary Dilts. “In addition, sales incentives – including those from Chrysler dealers facing closure – have helped contribute to the upswing.”
Signs of market recovery and the imminent introduction of the federally funded ‘cash for clunkers’ programme have prompted JDP to hold its 2009 forecasts steady at 8.3m for retail sales and 10m total sales.
“A more favourable environment in the second half of 2009 could result due to continued sales momentum, improved economic fundamentals and a stronger than expected response to the ‘cash for clunkers’ programme,” JDP said.
“While the programme theoretically could increase retail sales by as much as 500,000 units on an annualiSed basis, [we forecast] that actual sales increases would be considerably lower due to funding limitations and the duration of the programme.”
JD Power said the programme’s rules — based on fuel economy improvements and vehicle age balanced by trade-in value — were “restrictive and potentially confusing to consumers, thus limiting its potential”.
“It remains to be seen if the passage of [the] programme will be enough to draw consumers to showrooms and spark sales, but we remain sceptical,” said JDP forecasting director Jeff Schuster.
The analysts also suggested US market recovery could also be hampered by instability and insolvency among vehicle suppliers.
“Vehicle production is forecast to be as low as 8m units for 2009. Levels this low have not been seen since the 1980s. For many suppliers, viability is unsustainable at these levels.
“With several tier-one suppliers in or approaching bankruptcy, failure of these large suppliers would create a ripple effect among smaller suppliers. In turn, this could cripple vehicle manufacturers’ ability to replenish vehicle inventory and hamper prospects for any near-term recovery,” JD Power added.
