Ward’s is forecasting that, despite a small upward revision to November’s estimated output numbers, overall North American vehicle production for 2006 will decline to a ten-year low.
Go deeper with GlobalData
November’s North American production outlook is revised slightly upward, although Ward’s AutoForecasts still calls for a downturn (8.5%) from year-ago, to be followed by an 8.8% decline in December.
November’s revised output forecast calls for an additional 23,000 units from last month’s outlook to 1.247m. Most of the add-on is spread out among several auto makers.
December production should reach 1.063m vehicles, compared with year-ago’s 1.166m.
In the US, alone, production is forecast to decline 8.1% and 9.4%, respectively, in November and December.
How well do you really know your competitors?
Access the most comprehensive Company Profiles on the market, powered by GlobalData. Save hours of research. Gain competitive edge.
Thank you!
Your download email will arrive shortly
Not ready to buy yet? Download a free sample
We are confident about the unique quality of our Company Profiles. However, we want you to make the most beneficial decision for your business, so we offer a free sample that you can download by submitting the below form
By GlobalDataNovember’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of production now is forecast at 10.8m units, up from October’s 10.5m but well below year-ago’s 11.7m. The December SAAR equates to 11.0 million, compared with like-2005’s 11.2 million.
North America is forecast to end 2006 at 15.78m units, 3.3% below 2005’s 16.32m and the lowest annual output since 15.45m in 1996.
By country, the US will produce 11.2m vehicles in 2006, 6.2% below 2005 and a 13-year low. Canada’s output is forecast to slip 4.7% from year-ago to 2.56m, a sharp contrast from the peak 3.06 million in 1999.
Mexico’s plants will buck the trend with a forecast 19.6% increase over last year, topping 2m for the first time.
Mexico’s output is expected to total 2.01m units, compared with year-ago’s 1.68 million, surpassing the previous high of 1.92m in 2000.
New products from the ’06 model year have helped the Mexican surge.
Ford Motor Co. S.A. de C.V.’s 162% jump in output from 2005 largely is due to its Hermosillo plant, where production of the Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan began in late 2005 and a third shift was added in January.
The third vehicle in the trio of sedans, the Lincoln Zephyr, ceased production in June, and its successor, the Lincoln MKZ, was launched the first weekend in September.
Production of the Chevrolet HHR cross/utility vehicle spurred a significant gain for General Motors de Mexico S.A. de C.V.
Canada’s results were hindered by a decline in demand for minivans offered by Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG, both of which build the vehicles at plants in Ontario. A drop in production of large pickups at General Motors Corp. also contributed to the decline.
US output in the year has been hurt by declines nearly across the board.
Ford is forecast to see a 16.6% drop in its U.S. output, while DC, GM, Nissan North American Inc. and Toyota Motor Engineering and Mfg. North America Inc. also will record declines compared with 2005.
A reduction in the output of SUVs and pickup trucks primarily is responsible for the falloff, Ward’s says.
North American production is expected to rise slightly in 2007 in Canada and Mexico and stay relatively flat in the US, according to Ward’s.
