September’s US new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are projected by Edmunds to reach 742,000 units, a 22.9% decrease on the same month last year. analysts predict that September’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate (SAAR) will be 9.34m, down from 14.06m in August.

“The after effects of Cash for Clunkers are being felt in two ways: first, a significant number of September sales were pulled ahead into August, and second, the low inventories and often higher prices give shoppers few reasons to buy,” noted CEO Jeremy Anwyl.

“However, in the last half of the month we have seen that sales are gaining momentum, so there is room for a small upside surprise on sales announcement day. In addition, September sales are being buoyed by leftover clunker deliveries.”
“The unusual sales pattern that occurred during Cash for Clunkers will make for some odd month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons,” commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Analyst for
In her analysis for Edmunds’, Krebs reported, “This September is the opposite of last September. The first half of September 2008 – before the Lehman Brothers collapse – was stronger; sales dried up in the second half. This September sales were weak early in the month due to the Cash for Clunkers hangover and now are reaching a more normal – at least for these times – equilibrium. So, the trajectory of sales is more positive than a year ago.”
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 42.8% in September 2009, down from 53.2% in September 2008 and up from 41.1% in August 2009.

See also: US: September sales projected to drop to 9.2m SAAR