Following on from Ford chief Mark Fields’ announcement earlier this week that driverless cars will be with us within five years, Boston Consulting Group has released a study which says that autonomous vehicles may be on the road in large numbers by 2017 creating a US$42bn market for the technology by 2025.
Using technology already available on many high-end cars now, self-driving cars will be able to navigate busy city streets by 2022 and may account for a quarter of worldwide auto sales by 2035 with Japan and western Europe being the early adopters, BCG forecasts.
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Xavier Mosquet, North America leader of Boston Consulting’s automotive practice told Bloomberg News: “Many people don’t realise how far along some of these technologies are. Even more surprising, consumer interest and the production costs will make autonomous vehicles highly attractive to both carmakers and their customers.”
With up to 9bn people predicted to live in urban areas within the next 25 years, more than the global population now, the pressure is non to create technologies that ease gridlock.
Boston Consulting reported that in a September survey of 1,500 US drivers, more than half said they were likely or very likely to buy a partially self-driving car within about five years, with 44% saying they probably would buy a fully autonomous car in a decade.
The firm warned, however, vehicles must be secure from cyber-attacks and questions about liability must be answered. More precise maps will be needed while there are social concerns about cars that drive themselves which will need to be overcome.
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By GlobalDataBoston Consulting added that the spread of the technology could also lead to self-driving taxis that would be cheaper to operate in large cities than conventional cabs. Autonomy may also increase ride and car sharing, further cutting traffic jams.
Thomas Dauner, Boston Consulting’s head of the global auto practice and co-author of the study, said: “The next decades, after 125 years of driving yourself, will be ones that will change the auto industry to an extent it hasn’t been changed in 100 years. It will be radical.”
