Following September’s slowing of sales growth in Western Europe of SUVs and small MPVs [minivans], October saw a repeat for small MPVs while SUV registrations actually fell in comparison with the same month last year – the first fall since May 2001.
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Perhaps even more significantly, the core lower and upper-medium categories both showed an increase over the previous year, the first time that has happened since January 2002.
Independent analyst JATO Dynamics reckons carmakers will be watching closely to see if any sustained recovery of these two high-volume segments could be related to a decline of small MPVs and SUVs, which have cannibalised sales of more traditional passenger car offerings in the recent past.
Overall the Western European new-car market shrank by 2.33% over October 2003, to 1,179,658 units. However, year-to-date the market has grown by 1.1% to 12,601,822 units. The only countries to grow in October over the same month in 2003 were Denmark, Germany, Norway, Portugal and The Netherlands, but there have been big YTD gains in Denmark (21.5%), Greece (12.6% – following a reduction in purchase tax late in 2003 and the requirement for vehicles at this year’s Olympics) and Norway (22.8%). Of the Big Five, Spain is the best performer YTD, up 9.4%, with France, Germany and the UK all down and Italy only fractionally up.
Renault was again the best-selling brand in October, ahead of VW, Opel/Vauxhall, Peugeot and Ford. The latter two switch places to complete the top-five order YTD, with Ford the only one to have increased sales this year (1.7%). The most significant gains have been for Toyota, up 6.4% to move into ninth spot for the year from 10th, and BMW – up 9.9% YTD to leapfrog rival Audi into 11th. Hyundai, Volvo, Mazda, Kia and Daewoo have also all posted double-digit growth this year.
The VW Golf was the top-selling car in October, up 28.4% on 2003, followed by the Peugeot 206 and 307, Renault Mégane and Opel/Vauxhall Astra. The top four are the same YTD, with the Ford Focus replacing the Astra for fifth.
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By GlobalDataSegment highlights
The lower-medium segment rose by 4.1% in October over the same month last year, leaving it just 0.8% down YTD. The Golf is leading the fight-back and heads the segment from the Peugeot 307, but the Renault Mégane in third place is having sustained success, up 19.8% for month and 19.6% YTD. While it is still down 5.67% YTD, the upper-medium category was 2.0% up in October. Peugeot’s 407 has got off to a good start to end second behind the VW Passat for October, with the Ford Mondeo in third, up 3.4% for the month.
The premium lower-medium and premium upper-medium segments are experiencing differing fortunes. The former is enjoying growth, up 3.5% for the year following a very strong October performance (18.0% up on a year ago), helped by the addition of the five-door Sportback to the segment-leading Audi A3 line-up and the introduction of the BMW 1-Series. Meanwhile the latter segment fell 12.0% in October and is down 9.1% YTD. Audi’s revised A4 overtook the now ageing BMW 3-Series for the top spot in October, but its volumes were still 4.9% down on the previous year. Honda’s Accord is rallying hard however, up 42.0% YTD.
Growth in the mini/midi MPV segment slowed to 8.2% in October compared with the same month last year, whereas it was typically around 30% for much of this year. The Renault Scénic leads from the Citroën Xsara Picasso, but the star in growth terms is the VW Touran, which took third spot from the Opel/Vauxhall Zafira in October and is up 120.5% YTD.
Signalling a real possibility that the anti-SUV lobby and fuel prices are affecting the market’s voracious appetite for off-roaders [SUVs], the slowing in growth of the segment of recent months became a decline in volumes in October. All the top four YTD – Toyota RAV-4, Nissan X-Trail, Suzuki Vitara/Grand Vitara, BMW X5 – suffered falls in October. BMW’s new X3 was the fourth best-seller for the month, ahead of its larger X5 stablemate.
The market for mini vehicles is stable, thanks in part to the ongoing success of the Fiat Panda, which leads the segment and is 84.4% up YTD, while superminis are also static for the year, despite a drop of 8.3% in October. Renault’s Clio and Fiat’s Punto are second and third YTD behind the 206.
The Mercedes-Benz E-Class leads the executive category, which is slightly down for the year, from the newer BMW 5-Series and Audi A6. The high-luxury segment is not faring as well, down 11.5% YTD following a 6.5% decline in October. The Audi A8 led for the month but trails the Mercedes S-Class and BMW 7-Series YTD.
Sports cars, however, are faring well. The rash of new models in the last year has created sustained demand rather than a single peak, with registrations not only up 28.7% YTD but 34.4% during October. The Mercedes CLK leads from its SLK sibling YTD, but Opel’s new Tigra was third in October. Porsche’s 911 was up 21.9% for the month following the recent introduction of the redesigned model line.
