There is a lot of optimism in the UK that the transport sector can deliver massive reductions in CO2 emissions over the next 40 to 50 years.
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The King Review, prepared for the UK government as a follow-up to the Stern Review focusing on CO2 and transport, published last month, concluded that road transport in the UK could be almost completely decarbonised by 2050. This would depend on increased electrification of the vehicle fleet and a switch to renewable sources for the production of that electricity.
Michael Roberts, a member of the Commission for Integrated Transport (CFIT), also recently published a report on transport and climate change. His report found that technology alone can reduce CO2 emissions by around 45% by 2050, with no behaviour change. Speaking at a Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership (LowCVP) conference on promoting low carbon vehicles in London yesterday, Roberts said: “There are plenty of ideas out there about how we can reduce emissions from road transport, but the critical issue is cost”.
The cost of new technology is a major issue for the vehicle manufacturers. According to the European vehicle manufacturers’ trade association, ACEA, through technology change new cars will over-achieve the 20% CO2 reduction target that has been set for 2020 for the wider European economy. Kai Lücke, public affairs director of ACEA, said in London that while his association accepts the European Commission’s target of 120g/km average CO2 emissions, it regrets the almost exclusive focus on technology in its proposals and the focus on new cars. “Of course it’s difficult to get people to do eco-driving, of course it’s difficult to improve road infrastructure and traffic. Is it difficult to squeeze out 1% more fuel economy from an engine? Yes it is,” he said.
Julia King, author of the King Review, admitted that “as a technologist I believe that technology change is easier to achieve than behaviour change,” however she does in fact believe that while there is a huge potential for CO2 savings it needs everyone to work together and a combination of technology changes, smart vehicle choices and behaviour change.
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By GlobalDataRoberts believes that a combination of technology and taxation to encourage behaviour change is the most cost effective way forward. Looking to a target of 100g CO2/km by 2020, he said this level is certainly achievable but only if supported by a tougher annual registration tax system that charges progressively more for the most polluting vehicles.
There was some disagreement over whether annual ownership taxes are the best way forward, or purchase taxes. ACEA supports CO2-based ownership taxation – “there are not many industries you will hear saying they are in favour of CO2 taxes,” noted Lücke. However the association argues against purchase taxes, which it says are a tax on new cars rather than a tax on CO2. Strong arguments were put forward yesterday in favour of purchase taxes, which are said to encourage consumers to make more environmentally-friendly vehicle choices.
Ben Lane of Ecolane transport consultancy argued that although people are sensitive to cost when making a new vehicle choice, they are often unable to comprehend fuel economy information and translate that into lifetime costs. “Registration incentives are closer to the mindset of the consumer,” said Lane.
Susan Brown
