With significant uptake rates expected on technologies offered as options, – up to 20% within the compact segment for automated manual transmissions, for example – and consequent additional revenues, vehicle manufacturers are seriously considering larger scale implementation of alternative transmission technologies, consultants Frost & Sullivan said.
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With automated manual transmissions and dual clutch transmissions significantly improving the gear shifting comfort and contributing to reduced fuel consumption and emissions, growth opportunities in the market are plenty, the company said in a report.
Alliances and strategic co-operations between Tier 1 suppliers and vehicle manufacturers appear to be a strong trend within the transmission systems market, expected to contribute significantly towards technological innovation and customisation of technological solutions. Both vehicle manufacturers and suppliers have their gains from technical alliances: suppliers are guaranteed a healthy and constant pipeline of orders and vehicle manufacturers obtain an exclusive technological solution for their vehicles. Significant examples include the collaboration between BorgWarner and the Volkswagen Group, which generated the dual clutch transmission technology (marketed as the DSG automatic transmission) and the alliance between Ford and Getrag Transmissions, for the exclusive supply of stepped manual transmissions.
“The small, compact and medium segments are the most favourable in terms of volumes available for production,” said Frost & Sullivan research analyst Kaushik Madhavan.
“These segments are likely to be the most lucrative for the introduction of alternative transmission technologies as the economies-of-scale are most favourable. As consumers are willing to pay more for advanced and efficient technologies as well as upgrade to better equipped vehicles, even the smaller basic, compact and medium segments have tremendous growth opportunities.”
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By GlobalDataThe European automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards modularisation and modular outsourcing, with interior modules and systems leading the way. Following this trend, powertrain components are also expected to go the modularisation way with the advantages being far too significant to ignore.
With regard to transmission technologies, modularisation is likely to happen in the direction of integrating peripheral components such as transmission differential and the control module for clutch actuation.
Modularisation is likely to be favourable for models with sufficient production volumes with favourable ‘economies-of-scale’. This brings the niche segment vehicles with specialised transmission technologies into focus.
Transmission technologies in Europe earned revenues of EUR14.93 billion during 2005 and are likely to generate EUR17.22 billion by 2012, according to Madhavan.
A near three-quarter market share of stepped manuals earlier in the decade has reduced to about 71% in 2004 and is likely to further decrease to 49% by 2012.
Complimenting this is the increase in the market share of AMT and DCT, which – put together – are likely to account for about 28% of the total transmission market by 2012, according to Frost & Sullivan.
Further, as a common assembly line operates for stepped manuals, automated manuals, and dual- clutch transmissions, changes needed in production, assembly lines are minimised, and manufacturers are able to synchronise production with industry fluctuation and demand.
In terms of customers in need of upgrading to higher segment vehicles, this is likely to work in favour of automated manual transmission companies. As a result, with minimum investment, the manufacturers stand to gain as they increase the share of automated manual technologies within their portfolio.
Vehicle manufacturers with production volumes concentrated in the lower vehicle segments such as Ford, Renault and General Motors generally tend to have a higher concentration of stepped manual transmissions.
With customers looking to upgrade to higher segment vehicles, this is expected to work in favour of such companies as increasing number of consumers are expected to opt for automated manuals. Increasing number of customers are willing to pay the price premium associated with automated manuals. As a result, the manufacturers stand to gain as they increase the share of AMTs within their portfolio. Increased sales and revenues associated with automated manuals can also be expected, as the investments required are restricted to a minimum.
With increasing amount of electronics used in transmission technologies, the number of add-on modules is expected to increase leading to challenges with regard to space constraints. Front mounted transverse installations are expected to be the most affected.
Also with the number of gear ratios increasing from the current five speeds to six and seven speeds, technology suppliers are obliged to develop transmissions with similar exterior dimensions of their predecessors. The emergence of innovative transmission technologies such as the three-shaft transmission are expected to be very popular in smaller vehicle segments where space comes at a premium and manufacturers are always devising newer ways to save space.
In this case, a six-speed transmission occupies the space of a four-speed transmission along with offering high torque transfer capabilities. With smaller cars being equipped with more powerful engines, the torque transmission capability is also expected to be an important factor in the adoption of a transmission.
Nevertheless, compliance with the regulations of the Automobile Manufacturers Association of Europe (Acea) on reducing CO2 emissions will spur greater uptake of alternative transmissions technologies.
As a result, manufacturers will implement these advanced transmissions not only in high ‘comfort-aware’ vehicle segments, but also in mini and small vehicle segments, where customers are increasingly demanding comfort-oriented versions of the powertrain, Frost & Sullivan said.
