Russian analysts estimate the market could plunge by up to 40% this year to reach depths last seen in the 2009 crisis.

Figures from the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB AMC) in Moscow showed passenger car and LCV sales falling nearly 25% last month, dashing hopes December’s rosier numbers could herald a countrywide uptick.

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Currency depreciation, capital flight and high interest rates have combined to dampen the market, although the situation has presented opportunities for domestic producers and suppliers.

“As far as a total year forecast for 2015, sales could decrease to the bottom, which we observed in the 2009 crisis,” Ernst & Young CIS Automotive Group Head, Andrey Tomyshev, told just-auto from Moscow. “Sales dipped to 1.5m units – I think this target is quite realistic for this year.

“I think we will not return to annual sales in [their] historical maximum in 2012 – it will not return to these figures until the end of the decade – 2.8m/2.9m units by 2020 – even after.

“In 2015, it [Russia market] will be -35%/-40% – the major market players also expect the same decrease. We have the opinion of top management of Russian automotive dealers and they expect the same decline.”

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Russia is currently engulfed in a storm of financial and political unrest as eyes turn to the Belarus capital of Minsk tomorrow (11 February), where President Vladimir Putin is due to meet his German and French counterparts in a bid to resolve the ongoing Ukrainian crisis that has sparked a round of punitive sanctions aimed squarely at Moscow.

Many investors have already taken fright, draining vast sums of money out of the country, while high interest rates and rouble depreciation, have led the Russian government to extend its scrappage scheme in a bid to boost sales.

That fillip saw sales rebound 2.4% in December, but January numbers reverted to the downward curve experienced during so much of last year, with figures plummeting nearly 25%.

The Moscow analyst added Ernst & Young is undertaking a survey with the Russian Association of Automotive Dealers to check the health of the country’s car sector, with its results expected sometime in the spring.

AEB AMC chairman, Joerg Schreiber, earlier described January’s results as “a bad hangover” compared to the “party” of December, as consumers notice significantly higher vehicle prices meaning “the headache will rather get worse before going away eventually.”