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June 17, 2022

Russia light vehicle market down 83.5% in May

War in Ukraine and its economic impacts have caused the Russian vehicle market to collapse.

By David Leggett

The latest data on light vehicle sales in Russia shows a continuation of the sharp decline that has followed war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.

Figures released by the AEB in Moscow show that the Russian light vehicle market (cars and LCVs) decreased by 83.5% compared to May 2021 with just 24,268 units sold.

May’s decline follows an April drop of 78.5% (32,706 units sold) and drop of 62.9% in March (55,129 units sold).

Unlike the usual practice, the AEB press release containing the data was notably devoid of any comment on the data or market trend from a member of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers’ Committee.

Market leader Lada achieved sales of 6,012 units in May (a decline of 84% against last year).

GlobalData unit LMC Automotive said the May market result was weaker than expected and it has cut its 2022 forecast slightly, with Russian LV sales to come in at just 663,000 units in 2022 (-60% YoY). The forecaster also warned that the latest assessment is still subject to downside risk in view of the challenges associated with predicting the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

LMC also said the best-case scenarios – which are looking increasingly unlikely as the Ukraine conflict drags on – a diplomatic solution with compromise on both sides or some form of regime change leading to a better relationship with the West for Russia, would lead to a more positive outcome for the market in the medium- and longer-term.

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