New vehicle sales in the ASEAN region’s top six markets combined grew by 35.6% to 1,811,952 units in the first nine months of 2010, compared with 1,335,942 units a year earlier, as the region continued to bounce back from last year’s recession.
Strong economic growth continued across the region in the third quarter, although growth in key export-oriented economies such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore began to normalise after a strong bounce in the first half.
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Central banks are increasingly reluctant to raise interest rates, fearing currency appreciation in this competitive export environment. Low interest rates are helping to fuel domestic demand, while inflation remains mostly in range according to official statistics.
Third-quarter vehicle sales increased by 27% year on year to 624,667 units, compared with over 40% in the first half, reflecting mostly a slowdown in growth in Malaysia and Indonesia due to the annual Ramadan and Idul Fitri holidays. Sales in Vietnam also weakened in the third quarter, after a strong start to the year, while Singapore volumes remained depressed.
Indonesia was the fastest growing market in the region in the nine-month period, with sales in the nine-month period rising by 65% to a record 556,196 units. But Thailand managed to get its nose in front for the first time this year with 556,359 sales, according to data released by Toyota Motor Thailand, but only just.
Full-year ASEAN sales are expected to rise by at least 26% to over 2.4m units this year, which would be a new record for the region. Record sales are expected in the four main markets: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
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By GlobalDataVehicle sales in the ASEAN region by market, 2007-10
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
1-9 2009 |
1-9 2010 |
|
Thailand |
631,250 |
615,270 |
548,871 |
366,484 |
556,359 |
|
434,499 |
607,805 |
486,061 |
337,403 |
556,196 |
|
|
Malaysia |
487,176 |
548,115 |
536,905 |
397,950 |
453,249 |
|
Philippines |
117,903 |
124,449 |
132,444 |
93,385 |
129,901 |
|
Vietnam |
80,392 |
111,946 |
119,460 |
80,374 |
78,179 |
|
Singapore |
119,215 |
108,478 |
76,397 |
60,346 |
38,068 |
|
Total |
1,870,435 |
2,116,063 |
1,900,138 |
1,335,942 |
1,811,952 |
Sources: Industry sources.
Thailand
The Thai vehicle market expanded by just under 52% to 556,359 units in the first nine months of 2010, compared with 366,484 units a year earlier, according to data released by Toyota Motor (Thailand).
The market has continued to rebound strongly from last year’s recessionary lows and four years of volume decline. Sales in September rose by over 40% to 68,261 units – which is close to peak monthly volumes.
The economy has benefited from a period of relative stability in the third quarter, after the political unrest of the second quarter. This has helped restore consumer and business confidence and underpin domestic demand. The Bank of Thailand left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% earlier this month and a further hike is unlikely before 2011.
GDP growth is expected to exceed 7% this year, after expanding by 10% in the first half from depressed year-earlier levels. Growth is expected to normalise from here, with 4% economic growth widely forecast for 2011.
Mazda Sales (Thailand) managing director, Choichi Yuki, said he expects full-year sales to reach 750-800,000 units this year – which would represent a new record for the market.
JD Power was more cautious last month, with a forecast of 720,000 sales. It expects the recent strong moment to slow in the final months of the year, as the positive impact of the new model launches wanes and as the economy overall loses some momentum.
Indonesia
New vehicle sales in Indonesia increased 65% to a record 556,195 units in the first nine months of 2010, compared with 359,163 units a year-earlier, according to data released by automotive industry association Gaikindo.
The annual rate of growth slowed sharply in August and September, to 35% and 32% respectively, compared with above 70% growth in the first half of the year. This reflects tougher year-on-year comparisons and also fewer working days in the two months due to Ramadan and the annual Idul Fitri holidays.
The market continues to be robust, if somewhat saturated, helped by historically-low interest rates of 6.5% and strong consumer and business confidence. Third-quarter GDP growth is estimated at over 6%, slightly stronger than in the first half of the year. Inflation remains within the government’s range – allowing interest rates to remain low. Latest data shows that exports were up by over 40% in the January-August period.
Gaikindo’s deputy chairman, Jongkie Sugiarto, expects the vehicle market to rebound strongly in the last three months of this year, after the recent seasonal lull. The organisation expects sales to exceed 700,000 units this year, which would represent a 44% increase on last year’s volumes. Industry executives are more upbeat, with many expecting volumes to exceed 750,000 units this year.
Malaysia
Vehicle sales in Malaysia rose by 13.9% to a record 453,249 units in the first nine months of 2010, compared with 397,249 units a year earlier, according to data released by the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).
This represents a significant slowdown compared with over 19% volume growth in the first half of the year. The association attributes this to fewer working days in September due to the annual Hari Raya holidays, as well as tougher year-on-year comparisons. It expects sales to rebound in October, after declining by 5.8% to 43,443 units in September.
Bank Negara left interbank interest rates unchanged at 2.75% in its executive meeting earlier this month, citing benign inflation levels and recent currency appreciation against the US dollar. Economists do not expect a rate hike until well into next year.
The economy expanded by 9.5% in the first half of the year, compared with very depressed year-earlier levels. While the rate of growth slowed to more normal levels in the third quarter, most economists expect the economy to expand by 7% in 2010.
The short term outlook for the vehicle market remains good, with employment levels stable and upbeat consumer and business sentiment. The MAA has kept its full-year market forecast unchanged at 570,000 units.
