Consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton has projected annual sales of passenger cars in India at 3.5 million units by 2015.

The projection is based on the average of three scenarios. On a ‘positive case’ scenario, the growth rate of passenger car sales is assumed at 40% above the country’s GDP growth rate. The alternate scenarios involve the ‘base case’ of 20% growth and the ‘passive case’ where car sales growth is assumed the same as GDP growth.

The mean of the three scenarios or the rationalised sales growth projects sales of over three million cars by 2015 and of 2.1 million units by 2010.

The study assumes steady growth of the country’s economy of 5% to 7% per year with industry reforms keeping pace. Car penetration is projected to increase to 15 per 1000 people in 2015 from 8.5 by 2010. The rise in passenger car sales is attributed to growth in personal incomes and car prices driven down by intense competition. The consultancy sees sustained growth in car sales over the period.

Deepesh Rathore / Tilak Swarup