Indonesia’s new vehicle market soared by 42% year-on-year in the first two months of 2005, despite the recent natural disasters that have devastated parts of northern Sumatra. Data compiled by the Gaikindo vehicle manufacturers association shows wholesale volumes in January and February amounting to 91,198 units combined. This latest growth comes on the heels of an extremely buoyant 2004, which saw market volumes rise by 36% to 483,094 units – its highest level ever.
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There is strong positive momentum in the economy that, for the moment at least, more than offsets the effects of a depreciating currency, sharp rises in fuel and utility prices and other additional taxation. Average monthly inflation, according the Deutsche Bank in Indonesia, is forecast at 0.8% for the remainder of 2005. There is rising uncertainty for future export demand, as global economic growth is forecast to weaken this year.
Nevertheless, domestic consumption continues to be driven by good access to consumer credit and relatively low interest rates. Most domestic economists expect GDP growth in excess of 5% this year.
The vehicle market also has benefited very intense new product activity in the last twelve months – particularly among the Japanese carmakers. Last year saw the launch of new high-volume products, including compact utility vehicles in the US8,000-11,000 range, such as the Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia and Suzuki APV. These are the models have been fuelling most of the recent market growth.
The all-important Toyota Kijang was replaced last September and demand remains very strong for its Innova MPV replacement – a full-sized MPV based on the Hilux platform. According to Toyota Astra Motor’s marketing director, Mr Joko Trisantoyo, the waiting list for the Kijang Innova is around three months’ production. Somewhat cautiously, last month he forecast total market volumes to rise by less than 10% this year – to around 520,00 units.
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By GlobalDataIndonesian vehicle wholesale data by brand, 2003-05 | ||||
2003 | 2004 | 1-2 2004 | 1-2 2005 | |
Toyota | 100,860 | 141,941 | 20,314 | 27,905 |
Mitsubishi | 77,107 | 89,590 | 12,508 | 15,526 |
Suzuki | 70,154 | 82,241 | 11,162 | 15,459 |
Daihatsu | 21,698 | 47,623 | 5,162 | 9,534 |
Honda | 21,650 | 46,500 | 5,645 | 9,247 |
Isuzu | 19778 | 23452 | 3,129 | 4,629 |
Nissan | 6,720 | 12,201 | 1,607 | 2,377 |
Hyundai | 8,950 | 7,745 | 1,032 | 1,462 |
Kia | 5,217 | 6,210 | 355 | 1,380 |
Hino | 4,363 | 6,401 | 849 | 1,205 |
Others | 17,852 | 19,190 | 2,538 | 2,474 |
Total | 354,349 | 483,094 | 64,301 | 91,198 |
Source: industry sources. | ||||
