In automotive terms, 2014 surely will not be missed after the Brazilian domestic market’s 7.1% sales downturn. Combined with the 2013 0.9% slump, this means that, at 3.498m units, Brazilians bought some 8% less cars, LCV and HCV, last year than in the record 2012.
Such a troubled 2014 was not on analysts’ radar in December 2013. Even manufacturers association Anfavea, whose forecasts usually match, unexpectedly kept on reviewing numbers throughout the year. And how about 2015? Should it pass by as quickly as possible, as the more pessimistic say?
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Within the auto industry most predictions point to nil growth for tangible reasons or even just caution so as to avoid errors: the IPI excise tax was back to full rates on 1 January, untamed inflation, GDP near zero again, public expenditure restraints, trade balance in the red.
Yet a very few are betting on some growth based on other factors: the 2014 low comparative base, a probable credit rebound (under new rules that speed vehicle repossession in case of default) and export reaction if the real keeps devaluing with a bias towards BRL2.80/$3.00. The more optimistic see sales 1% to 2% higher this year.
As for new product offerings, 2015 will see plenty and 2014 was rich already. There were over 50 launches among domestic and imports, from subcompacts to large, from cars to light commercials, from updates to new generations (Corolla and Fit/City), not to mention completely new models (Ka and Up), and imports to be nationalised (built locally) soon (A3 and C-Class). Even the new BMW i3 EV (range extender) arrived here.
For this year the expected pace is unchanged and SUVs will never be so relevant. Three locally made and entirely new are the Honda HR-V, Jeep Renegade and Peugeot 2008 together with imports like the JAC T5; the Renault Duster will get a restyle. Imported sport utilities will stand out also with the arrival of the new Hyundai ix35 (to be nationalised in 2016), Land Rover Discovery Sport, Honda CR-V, Volvo XC90, Kia Sorento, JAC T6, Chery Tiggo 5 and Suzuki S-Cross, among others.
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By GlobalDataLight commercials will have a plentiful year as of the second half. Fiat will launch its mid-size, one-tonne pick-up with double cab, four door bodywork and flexible-fuel and diesel power. Several newcomers will fill out this segment: a new generation Hilux and Frontier and face-lifted Ranger and Triton.
Renault will introduce the Duster Oroch, the first compact pick-up to have a double cabin and four doors. GM is planning the new-generation Montana based on the Onix/Prisma/Cobalt platform, a double-cab version included, but production seems unlikely to start in 2015. VW will go for a Saveiro derived light cargo van aimed at the same market bracket as the Fiorino in a move to recover lost sales with the late December 2013 T1/T2 Transporter phase out after 56 years.
The year has barely started and already Nissan announced a new I3, one-litre/61 cu. in. engine to debut in the locally made Versa followed by the March [Micra]. Ford will align the Argentine Focus with the European range and, following the Brazilian made Golf, VW will commence Jetta saloon assembly though with few local parts. Volkswagen has already decided, as j-a learned, to produce the T-ROC, a crossover Golf derivative but the Up-based Taigun still lacks confirmation.
Fiat will present the Palio mid-generation update and slight updates of Punto and Bravo. Its new subcompact is scheduled for 2016. GM is on final approach for the Celta hatch and Classic sedan replacement which is more aligned to Ford’s Ka than VW’s Up and will also include compact saloons and a SUV derivative for 2016. Chery is to present its second local product along with the Celer, the new-generation QQ subcompact.
