As one of the top sponsors for the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro recently, BMW made presentations and showed the Mini E and Active Series 1 coupe. Missing were the i3 and i8 prototypes.

However, the automaker’s institutional involvement in this event was deeper than that of the Renault-Nissan alliance or Volkswagen and other major local players. Most activities BMW organised in Rio de Janeiro seemed disproportional to those of a premium brand with minimal participation in the Brazilian market and no local manufacturing (yet).

All this suggested the German automaker is, in fact, close to deciding on building a plant in Brazil. A company source, who requested anonymity, told just-auto the chance of a plant being confirmed soon was about 80%.

It would all depend on what the federal government administration decides about import quotas for automakers willing to establish manufacturing operations in Brazil. Expectations are that these new measures, under negotiation since the end of 2011, will soon be announced.

“To invest in a plant, a sustainable business plan is a must. This includes a two to three-year transition time span during which the dealer network and the import activity itself provide minimum turnover support until local production starts. If this could be fulfilled by means of import quotas with tax breaks to generate compensation for investment in the plant, surely conditions for a quick decision would be created,” the source said.

Meanwhile, Brazilian Henning Dorsnbusch, president of BMW in Brazil, keeps scouting for plant sites. He was recently in Joinville, in the southern state of Santa Catarina, for a conference. This city is heavily industrial, has a strong German expat community and very probably would be the right choice.