just-auto analyst, Ian Henry, spoke recently to Tony Schultz, vice president of the Americas, Honeywell Turbo Technologies; and Steve McKinley, vice president Engineering, Americas for Honeywell Turbo Technologies on the turbocharger market in North America.

just-auto: What are the main drivers for increasing use of turbochargers?

Tony Schultz: In the US, the key thing is the new set of federal fuel economy rules, which will require all VMs to meet the target of fleet average fuel consumption of 35 mpg by 2016 and 54.5 mpg by 2025.

These rules will inevitably mean increased turbo penetration, because of the help which turbos give the car companies in reducing fuel consumption. In addition, the trend towards higher turbocharger use is increasingly driven by rising fuel prices meaning consumers themselves want more fuel efficient vehicles independently of the legislative environment.

j-a: What are the key benefits of fitting turbochargers?

Steve McKinley: Turbos recycle exhaust gas energy and boost intake manifold air density allowing vehicle manufacturers to reduce engine displacement (ie size), while maintaining performance and response. The reduced displacement results in a net reduction in pumping losses and therefore a significantly better fuel economy, as much as 15 to 20% higher for gasoline applications, offering the consumers a no-compromise solution of fuel economy and performance.

j-a: How do you see the fitment rate of turbochargers growing in the future in North America?

TS: We expect turbo penetration in North America to be around 23% by 2016; and in the longer term, by 2025, this could be much much higher, up to 80%. The regulations which will kick in soon will result in a step change in demand for turbos quite quickly, but overall we expect steady year-on-year increases will see the market grow from 10% to 80% by the mid-2020s in North America. We are already starting to see this with the Ford EcoBoost and the Chevy Cruze and Cruze Eco models.

j-a: Please explain the situation regarding diesel and turbos in the US.

TS: As you may know, diesels are already essentially 100% turbo fitted, but diesel still has a very a low penetration rate in the US. Diesel also still has a dirty image here and it is also 10-20% more expensive than petrol at the pump. However, we see diesel’s image changing in the market and the new CAFE regulations for 2025 may bring diesel back to the table.

j-a: How do you see the trend to hybrids impacting turbocharger demand? Do hybrid diesels preclude turbos for example?

SM: We do not expect hybrids to account for much more than 10% of the market by the middle of the current decade. We even see some exciting turbo-gasoline hybrids in the field today. Take the BMW X6 hybrid for example; this has a turbo fitted. If hybrid diesels come into the mainstream, turbos are also a natural fit for peak efficiency.

j-a: What about the twin turbo market – how does this work?

…the full interview is available to buyers of AROQ’s exclusive report ‘Global market review of automotive turbochargers – forecasts to 2021’