Demand down again in November – Light vehicle sales declined 3.9 percent
in November from October, adjusted for the number of selling days. This is the
second consecutive month showing a decline in daily selling rate (DSR), as seen
in Chart 1. October had seen a 13.0 percent drop, compared to September.
Chart 1 – US Automotive Industry, Daily Selling Rate
Go deeper with GlobalData
However, the DSR in October and November of 2000 was approximately
on track with the DSR in the same months of the previous two years. Compared
to November 1999, the November 2000 DSR was down 3.5 percent, but it was up
3.5 percent from November 1998. Both 1999 and 1998 were strong years for light
vehicle sales.
Figure 1 presents DSRs from January 1999 to November 2000,
and shows changes for each month in 2000 from the corresponding month in 1999.
Comparisons to year-ago data eliminate seasonal effects, just as comparisons
in terms of DSR eliminate calendar effects.
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By GlobalDataFigure 1 – US Automotive Industry, Daily Selling Rate
| 1999 | 2000 | Change fromYear Ago (%) |
|
| Month |
(Thousand
Units) |
||
| Dec |
53.7
|
—
|
—
|
| Nov |
51.2
|
49.4
|
-3.5
|
| Oct |
52.2
|
51.4
|
-1.5
|
| Sep |
56.1
|
59.1
|
5.4
|
| Aug |
57.1
|
57.2
|
0.1
|
| Jul |
57.4
|
57.5
|
0.1
|
| Jun |
61.9
|
62.3
|
0.7
|
| May |
63.7
|
62.5
|
-1.9
|
| Apr |
54.2
|
60.0
|
10.8
|
| Mar |
57.0
|
61.8
|
8.5
|
| Feb |
53.8
|
60.2
|
12.0
|
| Jan |
43.8
|
48.3
|
10.4
|
Despite weakening demand, sales for the complete year 2000 still
are expected to exceed 17 million units. That would make 2000 a record year
for US light vehicle sales.
GM sales down most
General Motors suffered the biggest drop in DSR in November
from the previous month-18.1 percent for its domestic nameplates. Chrysler
Group was down 0.3 percent, but Ford’s domestic nameplates were up 4.3 percent.
Among major import nameplates, Honda/Acura sales were down 1.8
percent and Nissan/Infiniti sales were down 3.0 percent. Toyota/Lexus managed
to gain 5.8 percent, and VW/Audi gained 3.8 percent.
Figure 2 presents changes in unit sales by nationality
of nameplate in comparison to the year-ago month. These percentages are based
on data not adjusted for the number of selling days. Nevertheless, comparisons
to the change in the total market, which declined 3.5 percent, are valid.
North American nameplates declined 7.7 percent, while Japanese, Korean, and
European nameplates gained 2.8, 18.9, and 7.4 percent, respectively.
Figure 2 – Sales by Nationality of Nameplate, Change from
Year Ago, Percent:
| Date | Total | North America | Japanese | Korean | European |
| Dec-00 | |||||
| Nov-00 |
-3.5
|
-7.7
|
2.8
|
18.9
|
7.4
|
| Oct-00 |
-1.5
|
-1.3
|
-5.2
|
24.1
|
3.6
|
| Sep-00 |
5.4
|
0.9
|
13.3
|
44.9
|
8.7
|
| Aug-00 |
4.0
|
0.4
|
8.1
|
38.1
|
12.3
|
| Jul-00 |
-3.7
|
-7.5
|
2.1
|
21.6
|
4.0
|
| Jun-00 |
0.7
|
-5.5
|
15.4
|
41.4
|
9.6
|
| May-00 |
2.0
|
-2.5
|
10.9
|
38.7
|
8.6
|
| Apr-00 |
6.5
|
1.9
|
14.2
|
66.5
|
16.3
|
| Mar-00 |
8.5
|
3.8
|
17.8
|
64.8
|
17.2
|
| Feb-00 |
16.6
|
13.5
|
18.4
|
102.7
|
29.8
|
| Jan-00 |
10.4
|
4.5
|
20.2
|
58.3
|
30.7
|
|
Not
adjusted for number of selling days. |
|||||
Frost & Sullivan
Figure 3 presents the consequences of these sales trends
for market shares. The share of domestic nameplates fell to an all-time low
of 63.4 percent, a figure that was above 70 percent as recently as June 1999.
The decline in share among domestic nameplates is due to General
Motors’ drop to 25.6 percent in November from 30.0 percent in October. Ford’s
domestic nameplates rose to 23.0 percent from 21.2, and Chrysler Group’s nameplates
rose to 14.9 percent from 14.4 percent.
Figure 3 – Market Shares by Nationality of Nameplate, Percent:
| Date | Total | North America |
Japanese | Korean | European |
| Dec-00 | |||||
| Nov-00 |
100
|
63.4
|
26.7
|
2.8
|
7.1
|
| Oct-00 |
100
|
65.6
|
25.1
|
2.7
|
6.6
|
| Sep-00 |
100
|
64.7
|
26.4
|
3
|
5.9
|
| Aug-00 |
100
|
63.6
|
26.9
|
3.1
|
6.4
|
| Jul-00 |
100
|
63.6
|
27.4
|
2.9
|
6.1
|
| Jun-00 |
100
|
66.6
|
24.4
|
2.8
|
6.1
|
| May-00 |
100
|
66.1
|
25.3
|
2.6
|
5.9
|
| Apr-00 |
100
|
67
|
24.2
|
2.6
|
6.2
|
| Mar-00 |
100
|
68.4
|
23.3
|
2.4
|
5.8
|
| Feb-00 |
100
|
69.1
|
23.1
|
2.3
|
5.5
|
| Jan-00 |
100
|
65.9
|
25.6
|
2.3
|
6.2
|
| Dec-99 |
100
|
67.3
|
24.6
|
1.8
|
6.3
|
| Nov-99 |
100
|
66.3
|
25
|
2.3
|
6.4
|
| Oct-99 |
100
|
65.5
|
26.1
|
2.2
|
6.3
|
| Sep-99 |
100
|
67.6
|
24.5
|
2.2
|
5.7
|
| Aug-99 |
100
|
65.8
|
25.9
|
2.3
|
5.9
|
| Jul-99 |
100
|
66.2
|
25.8
|
2.3
|
5.7
|
| Jun-99 |
100
|
71.1
|
21.3
|
2
|
5.6
|
| May-99 |
100
|
69.2
|
23.3
|
1.9
|
5.5
|
| Apr-99 |
100
|
70.1
|
22.6
|
1.7
|
5.7
|
| Mar-99 |
100
|
71.5
|
21.5
|
1.6
|
5.4
|
| Feb-99 |
100
|
71
|
22.7
|
1.3
|
5
|
| Jan-99 |
100
|
69.6
|
23.5
|
1.6
|
5.2
|
Frost & Sullivan
Putting it in perspective
Although the new-vehicle market may be starting to see the
effects of a slower economy, a broader view suggests that there is no precipitous
decline in demand. Only in comparison to unusually strong demand over the
previous two years do October and November sales look weak. However, economic
indicators suggest that sales in 2001 will not match the stellar performances
of the previous two years.
