The 2014 Paris Mondial de l’Automobile opens to the press in early October. This month’s Management Briefing offers a preview of the likely main new models, with a round up of the highlights to follow later next month.
Running an eye down the ever-growing list of world premieres, there are a few obvious highlights already emerging for the 2014 edition of the Paris Mondial de l’Automobile. That would include the confidence of PSA to launch DS as a stand-alone division in Europe, the Opel/Vauxhall Corsa, the XE sedan for Jaguar, and of course Volkswagen’s long overdue replacement for the nine-year old Passat (eyes right).
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Like those who go on about the supposed weakness of the Japanese market, an astonishing number of analysts continue to lament an as yet unseen ‘return’ to record high vehicle sales in Europe. This not only ignores the reality of a steady population decline, albeit not as steep as in Japan or Russia, but it also means a loss of recall of how so many vehicle purchases were funded in 2006 and 2007. Hopefully, aggressively-pedalled lending on a mass scale will not be allowed to inflate another consumer debt bubble in countries such as Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Take a look at ACEA’s data and sales are rising or contracting only slightly in almost all of the 30 markets for which it crunches numbers. It’s from a low base, but even Greece’s car market is up for the year to the end of August – by 21.4%, and the Irish market has risen by 30% over the same period. These are small markets but they underline that the worst is well and truly behind the most indebted of European nations, with the UK another great example of that fact, car sales being up by 10.% for the year to date.
The monthly ACEA reports are a great way to look at the real picture of how brands are doing across the region, even allowing for the distortions created by the worst excesses of discounting. You do need to consider these figures in parallel with national numbers and those from certain manufacturers which count Turkey and Russia as part of their ‘Europe’ regions, however. So what’s been going on, and what’s likely to be ahead, since we know what the major new products being launched at Paris will be? The Volkswagen Group is the best place to start.
The VW brand continues to ride high thanks to its performances in Germany, Britain and Spain. The new Passat will have a big effect on sales at home and in the UK from early 2015 so it’s fair to say this is probably the most important car at Paris. Its shift onto the MQB architecture means lower manufacturing costs and more powertrain choices, such as the forthcoming plug-in hybrid variant. The T6 Transporter, Shuttle and Multivan have just been announced at the Hannover IAA, and previewed by the Tristar concept. This is another model series which is very late: Volkswagen has been building the T5 vans and passenger vans since 2003. What about the next CC? It might well be at Paris but LA in November or Geneva 2015 seem more likely launch venues. And a new Touran to replace the (yes really) 12 year old current model? Also not until 2015, apparently.
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By GlobalDataAudi’s never ending new and additional model roll-out is impressive, and yet, what’s this…..sales not only fell across Europe last month but by 8.2%. The age of the A4 is becoming harder to disguise, especially with the appeal of the new C-Class. Audi really should have replaced the A4 and A5 by now but we’ll have to wait until 2015 and 2016 for those. Instead, Paris brings the debut of the open-top version of the TT as well as facelifts for the A6 range. There should be some others (A1 facelift? RS 3? Q7? Q7 e-tron? TT offroad?) and in a couple of months’ time, a preview of a new A9 series should be revealed at the LA show.
Škoda will reveal the new Fabia hatchback in Paris, with the next edition of the Superb reportedly headed to Geneva next Spring, to be followed by the Polar, the brand’s first SUV, towards the end of 2015. An MPV, possibly just for China, is also due to appear in 2015. As for SEAT, not much is in store for the Mondial, just the León X-Perience. A new Ibiza has been delayed until 2017, so expect another facelift for the current car within the next six months.
As you would expect, PSA is hoping to make a big impact at its home show. This will be the coming out party for DS as a separate division. Facelifts and name changes for the Citroën DS4 and DS5 – DS 4 and DS 5 – may turn up at the Mondial, or else appear at Geneva and AutoShanghai 2015. The brand’s design direction will be previewed by the Divine DS concept, so if you want to know what the next DS 4 might look like, here’s the first clues. Citroën itself will have a streamlined and even lighter version of the C4 Cactus, the 2L (sic) which is claimed to return economy of just 2l/100km (141mpg or 118miles per US gallons).
Peugeot, meanwhile, has the first showing of the RXH facelift and a new non-hybrid powertrain for this 508-based crossover, along with GT versions of the 308 and 308 SW. There are also three concepts, one of which, the Quartz, probably previews the 6008, an Edge crossover rival which might be just for China – like the big Ford, it’s hard to see much potential for it in EU markets. Incidentally, it will be a very quiet 2015 for PSA, with no new models (with the possible exception of a theoretical DS 1), just a C1 crossover and a number of facelifts due to be launched in European markets: 208, 4008, C3 Picasso, C4 and C4 Aircross plus the DS 4 and DS 5.
GM Europe has saved a lot of money by developing the new Corsa on the same basic architecture as the outgoing model, but will its driving dynamics be up to the standards of the best in class? We won’t have to wait long to find out as the press test drives are only weeks away. There are also some new engines for various models, and the production version of the Adam S, which has a turbocharged engine, a first for the Adam. We won’t see the new Astra at Paris as it’s still a year away from production, and the Agila replacement will not be there either – it’s the Karl as an Opel and the Viva as a Vauxhall and the debuts will be at Geneva. The Corsa OPC/VXR and a facelifted Zafira Tourer are also headed to showrooms in 2015, but the next Antara is now said to have been bumped into 2016.
Ford of Europe finally launches the Mondeo at Paris. This car has been available as the Fusion in North America since 2012 and the Mondeo in China since mid-2013 so there will probably be an early facelift in about a year’s time. FoE is making much of Vignale (Vin-YA-lay), an expensive model grade positioned above Titanium X. Vignale cars will be gradually rolled out across global markets for certain models. The Mondeo Vignale sedan and wagon concepts were revealed at the Frankfurt show in September 2013. Curiously, nowhere on either did the word Mondeo appear. The production cars will be on sale in Europe from early 2015. And a reminder that a 1.0-litre three-cylinder petrol engine will be available in the Mondeo – the first time a manufacturer has offered such a tiny motor in a D segment model. A new 2.0-litre diesel will be added in 2016.
The next S-MAX, which is a proper world premiere at Paris, should also gain the new diesel a year after its launch. Like the Mondeo, it will be available with all-wheel drive – something neither model offers at present. FoE might also show the new Ka in Paris – it’s on sale in Brazil already and should be in European showrooms in about a year’s time. The other important model for 2015 will be the Galaxy, which we are yet to see. It will be built alongside the Mondeo and S-MAX in Valencia on the same CD4 architecture.
Renault’s regional comeback continues, and Paris will see the Nissan and state-controlled firm launch its equivalent of Vignale in the form of the Clio Initiale Paris. This trim will be used for the Espace successor too, also due to be shown in Paris. After this will come the next Laguna, Scenic, XMOD and Koleos so unlike PSA, Renault will be having a busy time of it in 2015 with new models. We mustn’t forget Dacia, which reveals Stepway (crossover) versions of the Dokker and Lodgy at the show. These will be followed by Logan, Sandero and Sandero Stepway facelifts in about a year’s time.
France’s largest car maker is also participating in the same government-funded New Industrial Plan project to develop a 2l/100km prototype as PSA but its model looks more interesting and achieves 1l/100km (282mpg). This is the EOLAB, which if you squint, probably gives you a good idea what the next Clio and/or Zoe Z.E. Hybrid will look like. Pay close attention to this car, as it contains lots of lightweight knowhow developed by not just Renault but also Faurécia (seats), Michelin (tyres), Continental (brakes), Posco (magnesium components) and Saint Gobain (glazing).
Kia will be revealing the new Sorento plus mid-life facelifts for the Venga and Rio small cars, with its parent company showing an additional model, the i20 Coupé, which will be manufactured by Hyundai Assan in Turkey alongside the new i20. Facelifts for the Hyundai i30 and Santa Fe aren’t due until 2015, with updates for the i40 and Veloster perhaps coming before then – Paris would be logical for the former, and LA for the latter. Don’t forget about the ix25 either. It’s already been revealed for the Chinese market and seems like a good fit for HME’s markets too. Next year also promises mid-life refreshes some for two made-in-Europe Kias: the cee’d and pro_cee’d.
Nissan Europe will be making a big fuss over its aggressively priced return to the five-door C segment with the arrival of the Pulsar. That’s pretty much it for NE until the arrival of a facelifted Note in 2015. Infiniti Europe will be premiering the Q70 2.2d in Paris. This is the same 2.1-litre Mercedes-Benz four-cylinder diesel as powers the Q50 2.2d. A possible preview of a global Panamera challenger will also be shown in the form of the Q80 Inspiration concept. The Q30 and QX30 will probably not be shown until next year’s Geneva salon. Production of each is set to commence in the north east of England from the second half of the year. Replacements for the Q60 Coupe and Q60 Convertible will be two other models coming in 2015.
Toyota Motor Europe won’t have much in the way of new products at the Mondial, but it will be showing a design study, the C-HR, that hints at a Qashqai rival to come. A GT-86 roadster would be nice but will have to wait until 2015, and that’s also when the long overdue successors to the Hilux and Avensis should appear.
BMW Group has the world premieres of the 2 Series Convertible and second generation X6, as well as a new 2.0-litre diesel for the 2 Series Coupé and 5 Series. These should be followed in 2015 by the X7, next 7 Series, a possible Z2, 1 Series facelift and additional sedan body style plus the long wheelbase 2 Series Active Tourer. Mini has the global debut of the five-door hatchback, which will be complemented by a new Clubman and Convertible within the next six months. There might also be a Mini Hybrid in 2015.
Rolls-Royce? Nothing has been revealed and the so-called “pinnacle open-topped tourer” won’t enter production until “mid-2016”, it was announced earlier this year, with the SUV as far away as 2017. Perhaps we’ll see a concept of one of them at least. Certainly something is needed, as the Ghost is now five and the Phantom an embarrassing eleven years old.
Daimler will be holding the public debuts of the new smart fortwo and forfour at this show, but the electric drive versions of each will not be on sale until next year. As for Mercedes-Benz, there’s lots to see on its stand, the highlight of which will be the new AMG GT. There should be a roadster body style coming by 2016 as well as lots of other new or updated models. That includes an A-Class facelift and a Shooting Brake, a C 350 Plug-in Hybrid, S-Class Cabriolet, S-Class Maybach and Pullman, GLE Coupe, M-Class facelift, GL-Class facelift, SLK-Class facelift (it might change names to SLC), C-Class Coupe, C-Class Cabriolet and CLS-Class facelift. Look out Audi.
Moving now to the smaller regional OEMs, Fiat-Chrysler will finally begin adding some much needed fresh metal with the launch of the Fiat 500X at Paris. It looks good – less rugged than its Jeep Renegade brother – and should sell well provided the B-crossover segment keeps expanding. That’s pretty much it from FCA until the expected arrival of the Alfa 4C Spider, 4C Coupe QV or GTA, Panda facelift and Abarth 500/Fiat 500 replacements in 2015.
Fiat is once more trumpeting the misinformation of ‘the European downturn’ as the reason why it’s cutting Panda production, just as Ford is doing, having announced a hiatus for Fiesta build, also in November. Let’s remind ourselves of the facts – the overall market was up in August for the 12th month in a row. Makers which don’t delay facelifts and replacement models are doing well. For that reason, FoE will probably be understandably annoyed by the decision of the parent company to delay the next Fiesta from 2015 until 2016 or 2017. The lesson is there for all to see: Fiat’s market share collapsed after the European downturn following its management’s unfathomable decision to slow or even stop investments in the development of new models.
I mentioned the Jaguar XE in the introduction. It’s hard to overstate how important this car is for JLR. It doesn’t go into production until 2015, and will be joined by an XJ facelift, then a new XF later in the year. Let’s hope the XE gets the rumoured Sportbrake body style that it will need to mount an effective attack on the 3 Series, C-Class and next A4 ranges. This should come in 2016, along with a coupe and convertible. The UK press are excited by the new Jaguar but let’s keep things in perspective – the brand has sold 17,611 vehicles across Europe for the year to date giving it a 0.2% share of the market. The only way is up. At least it’s staying ahead of Lexus, though only just (16,746 sales in the same period).
Meanwhile, Land Rover, the profts powerhouse of Tata Motors, pulls the covers off the Discovery Sport at the Mondial. Like the XE, this successor to the Freelander/LR2 won’t be launched until next year. That should be just before or just after the arrival of a facelift for the Evoque. Want to know how badly Alfa has been neglected and how successful Land Rover continues to be? One is outselling the other almost two-to-one. Europe-wide sales for the year to the end of August are 37,794 versus 70,230.
Porsche has a facelifted Cayenne premiering at the show, and that also sees the replacement of the Hybrid with a plug-in, the S E-Hybrid. This uses the same powertrain as that in the Panamera S E-Hybrid. This supercharged V6 and electric motor combo should also turn up in the Macan in 2015. Next year is also when a facelifted 911 is due.
Volvo has been sending out endless media releases concerning the XC90 for over 12 months now so it will be good to finally see this model. A V60 Cross Country will follow at the LA show in November. After these two, the S90 should be the brand’s next new model, this successor to the S80 being expected to have its moment under the floodlights at Geneva in March, to be supplemented by the S90L at AutoShanghai the following month.
Of the remaining as yet unmentioned brands, it’s sad to report that Honda Motor Europe continues to be so troubled. Regional sales fell again in August, this time by 5.7% with its total, 8,955, just 148 cars ahead of Mitsubishi Motors Europe. Let that sink in – Honda being outsold by Mitsubishi. In one of the world’s largest markets. In fact, it’s probably already happened over the last few weeks. At Paris, HME will show what it’s calling the ‘Jazz Prototype’ as a world premiere. This being a different name for a car that’s been on sale in Japan since 2013. Worryingly, the stated engine is a 1.3 petrol, when what has killed the current model, was and is, not only its age but the lack of a diesel.
It’s hard to see things improving for HME when there is so much fuss being made over two cars which will sell in tiny numbers, namely the Civic Type R and the NSX. Both will be great to drive but they’re distractions to what has been needed since 2013: built-in-Swindon versions of the new Jazz and HR-V. While both of these models are in the new product pipeline, they won’t be here until 2015 and each will be an import. Will HME even be able to make the business case for equipping them with a diesel, when the 1.6 is made in England, and the 1.5 in India? Some tricky hedging there then.
Here’s a reminder of how bad things have become for Honda in Europe. ACEA’s numbers show just 81,217 cars sold for the year to the end of August. Compared to 87,841 for JLR, 98,651 for Suzuki, 105,950 for Mazda (unlike Honda it has no European factories), 288,570 for Nissan (brand) and 327,003 for Toyota (ditto). It is just astonising that such a rich and successful company has got itself into this situation at a Europe-wide level. The sad thing is, the Civic is an excellent car and the estate has the biggest boot in its class, while the CR-V is also up with the class leaders (this facelift will come to Europe in 2015). But the B- and B-crossover segments are where Honda needs to be with fresh products powered by engines with the right CO2 numbers.
A final mention for a couple of other important new models. The Vitara should help Suzuki outsell Mazda Europe in 2015 or 2016 once its Hungarian plant starts churning out big enough numbers of this new B-SUV model, but the brand from Hiroshima also has what looks like a winner on its hands with the new MX-5. Plus a nice little OEM business on the side supplying FCA’s Fiat or Abarth brand with a roadster that’s based on it from the second quarter of 2015.
If I’ve missed any new models debuting in Paris it’s only due to them not yet having been announced by their makers as at the writing date of this preview (22 September) but keep an eye on the updated-daily debuts list over the coming days. There’s an especially tasty Lamborghini four-seater, for example, but other details of that one are yet to be confirmed.
A Paris-themed Special Management Briefing will provide an overview of the event, and this will be published towards the end of the week that follows the 2 & 3 October press preview days.
