Despite some bold predictions for autonomous vehicles (AVs) over the past few years, enthusiasm and investment for further development has stalled lately. While we are seeing an acceleration of level 1 and 2 driving automation, there are delays in higher levels due to the lack of an established regulatory framework and the Herculean challenge of providing safety in all driving situations. Matthew Beecham assesses the state of play of the driver-free utopia.
Driverless means a vehicle that has no driver and, therefore, needs to be able to do everything by itself – without a steering wheel – hence fully automated. That suggests a level of automation hence the SAE's six levels of automation. These levels are also referred to as key stages towards automated driving (AD), namely feet-off, hands-off, eyes off, and brain off.
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It now appears that it will be years before truly driverless cars become a reality, if at all. The 'race' to safely offer fully autonomous cars has slowed. Although a good proportion of the technology needed to operate self-driving cars has been developed, the laws that allow such vehicles on our roads are some way behind. The COVID-19 pandemic has also prompted some automakers to rethink their strategy and scale back their L4/5 developments.
In 2018, Ford said it was aiming to have a L4 car in commercial operation by 2021 and wanted to have 'high volume' (over 100,000 units a year) to maximise the business opportunity via ride-hailing or ride-sharing. Then came the pandemic. Earlier this year, the automaker released a set of downbeat quarterly financial results that indicate the depth of the reversal caused by the pandemic. The automaker also took the opportunity to save money and put the brakes on investment in AVs. Ford said its autonomous vehicle services rollout plans have now been put back to 2022 as it meets the challenges of the current business environment as well as 'the need to evaluate the long-term impact of COVID-19 on customer behaviours'.
Two years after partnering with Lyft to co-develop self-driving technology, Magna International abandoned the alliance. The supplier says it is focusing on developing assisted driving technology instead of full autonomous technologies.
Although ZF remains excited about automated driving, it says the challenge will require more time and effort to fully realise. The supplier, therefore, sees two distinct paths: Level 2+ for passenger cars, which will take a longer, perhaps more winding road to achieve; and cargo and people movers in defined geo-fenced areas utilising Level 4 and 5 technologies.
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By GlobalData"There is no consistent global regulatory framework that oversees Level 3 and higher automation making implementation very challenging and causing potential confusion for vehicle operators."
The supplier believes that Level 2 up to Level2+ systems are the near-term future for passenger cars for several reasons. Aaron Jefferson, VP, Strategy, Marketing and Business Development, ZF Electronics and ADAS Division, told just-auto: "There is no consistent global regulatory framework that oversees Level 3 and higher automation making implementation very challenging and causing potential confusion for vehicle operators. The cost challenge is also highly significant as the average consumer would not be able to afford Level 3-5 vehicles due to the number of sensors, processing units, redundant actuators, etc. In addition, the test and validation challenge for such vehicles on world roadways is highly challenging – as we are able to bring more and more Level2/2+ vehicles on the road, the more opportunity there is to capture the unusual use cases and then test and validate for them."
ZF used the 2020 Consumer Electronics Show to explain its future plans for Automated Driving (AD) under the banner – Automating Next Generation Mobility. Its showcase highlighted the company's efforts for personal passenger vehicles where the company is concentrating on Level2+ systems. In addition, ZF continues to develop Level 4 systems for applications like commercial vehicles, people movers and robo-taxis where there is a nearer-term business case. Its approach to autonomy is to invest in technologies that will have near term benefits for the public in terms of personal mobility and goods delivery.
Road blocks and diversions
While manufacturers say their technology will ultimately allow L5 cars to drive themselves, legislation in some parts of the world is holding them back. It's clear that the challenge of automated driving is far bigger than the industry first expected and the grim reality of a number of AV-related fatalities have made things worse.
Whichever way levels 2, 2+ and 3 are defined, all require the driver to be ready to take back control of the vehicle. That's a grey area littered with potential safety and insurance issues. And for some, the time taken to regain control of the vehicle may be too long to avoid a hazard. Rushing further technical development could have disastrous consequences. Those heady days of AD optimism propped up with bucket loads of venture capital for high-profile startups are but a distant memory.
Anyone's guess
So if a L5 car is on hold, what can we expect? L3+ autonomy for niche applications in geo-fenced areas? While some automakers have put the brakes on AV development, others are powering ahead. Chinese electric vehicle startup Nio is working with Intel's Mobileye on Level 4 technology.
Nio's VP for Europe Hui Zhang told just-auto: "Mobileye and Nio are working together to develop highly automated and autonomous vehicles for China and other significant key markets. As part of the planned cooperation, Nio will develop and manufacture a self-propelled system conceived by Mobileye based on its Level 4 Autonomous Driving Kit. This system will be the first of its kind. Crucially, it takes into account the needs of its users as well as automotive standards in terms of qualification, quality, cost efficiency and scalability. As you might have seen, Nio will be a production partner for Mobileye. In addition, the system is set to be integrated into the future Nio vehicles and will be an integral technological component of Mobileye's driverless driving service."
Predictions as to when the first truly AV will be ready varies depending on who we talk to. It's anyone's guess. Even if the more optimistic predictions come true, initial volumes will be small. Whether or not we believe the hype around AVs, we can be sure it will be a game changer.
