The new head of PSA Peugeot Citroën says the group’s model range will be slashed to just 26 vehicles, across three brands, by 2020. Which vehicles might Carlos Tavares be sharpening his axe for?
First off, let’s set light commercials to one side as there was nothing in PSA’s statement this week about these. The company has existing alliances in this area – joint production with FCA, supply to TME – and it won’t be a surprise if new co-operations are announced over the coming year. Expect a few old timers to fade away as planned – the Berlingo and Partner from the 1990s are still built at Palomar in Argentina but they’re unlikely to last past 2015. Proposed successors for passenger versions of the Nemo and Bipper small delivery vans (built by TOFAS in Turkey) are probably now dead too.
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Starting at the smallest segment, here we find the unloved, MMC-supplied Citroën C-Zero and Peugeot Ion twins. Is there a significant market for A segment EVs? There might be one day but as Mitsubishi’s own experience shows, the original i-MiEV has been something less than a hot seller, especially in Europe and the US. In Japan, it has fared better but it’s hard to see PSA taking replacement models from MMC. A follow-up to the i-MiEV is due to be launched in Japan in 2016.
PSA’s other cars in this segment seem safer. The Peugeot 108 and second generation C1 were revealed at the Geneva show last month and we’ll see them in showrooms from June/July, along with the third of this trio, the Toyota Aygo. Using the old platform is a good idea for keeping costs down, as is keeping the production site at Kolin in the Czech Republic. It would have to look far more premium than these three do, but a hypothetical DS 1 or DS 2 is an obvious addition. A surprisingly often overlooked and highly profitable segment awaits in a couple of major markets – the Lancia Ypsilon and pricey Fiat 500 limited editions sell well in Italy and France.
Moving up to the B segment, the C2 is old and sold only in China so it’s almost certainly for the chop. Expect this by then decade-old model to be discontinued in 2016 and its place on the line at Wuhan 1 to be taken by something that’s bigger and commands higher prices. The C-Elysée is made at the same plant and supplements the second generation model but it’s likely to be phased out in 2015. That’s around the same time as the newer C-Elysée will be headed towards its first facelift. This B segment sedan is made at the more modern Wuhan 3, as well as in Spain alongside its Peugeot 301 twin. Unless PSA can work out a way of building and selling a lot more of these would-be rivals for the Dacia and Renault Logan, a hard-headed decision to axe their 2020 replacements might need to be taken.
The next C3 and C3 Picasso seem safe, as do the related Peugeot 208 and DS 3 successors. All will use PSA’s own future EMP1 architecture. This follows an October 2013 statement from PSA, in which it said the “B-common platform project is under review” but provided no other details. K-T Neumann, the head of Opel-Vauxhall, stated in an interview just weeks ago that the GM division would not be collaborating with PSA for B-Common. This means PSA will go its own way and evolve this into what will be rebranded as EMP1. Opel/Vauxhall will use its own G2XX architecture for the second generation Adam and other future B segment models.
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By GlobalDataWill Brazil’s AirCross, a C3 Picasso-based crossover, make it to a new generation? It seems unlikely – the Porto Real plant should instead gain a higher-priced B-SUV from 2017. A couple of other Brazilian-made models will likely soon be discontinued – the Peugeot 207 Brasil series, plus the Hoggar pick-up, and the old-shape C3 will surely all be dropped by 2016 or 2017 due to their age, and replaced by models for which higher prices can be asked, such as the 208, 2008 and next generation C3 Picasso.
Long before Carlos Tavares’ recent grand announcement, PSA had been quietly cancelling a few once-proposed models, including a theoretical 208 CC. The 207 CC continues to be made, for now, but its place at the Villaverde plant in Madrid is expected to be taken by the C4 Cactus from August. The twelve year old 807 and C8 minivans are also due to be discontinued – the 5008 and C4 Grand Picasso are fresher and similarly sized.
What about the global C segment? Here there really could be a shock. Will the next generation C4 make it to market as scheduled in 2016? The three-door body style was not replaced for the current Mark 2 model, and it would seem logical to use the new C4 Cactus as a quasi-successor to the five-door. Even if the C4 hatchback has no direct successor, Peugeot would probably still get a replacement for the 308 – that one isn’t due until 2020.
The future looks bleak for two C-crossovers, the C4 Aircross and 4008. These are based on the Mitsubishi ASX and neither has been a success. A mid-life facelift is theoretically due in 2015 but unless MMC has locked PSA into a rigid supply contract, the Okazaki plant in Japan is probably going to stop building these two some time soon. What’s more, the fothcoming C4 Cactus shows that PSA wants to go its own way in this segment.
Another C segment model, the second generation Peugeot 408, is about to be revealed at the Shanghai motor show. This will be initially for China and is the sedan version of the 308. A longer wheelbase Citroën C4 L derived from the same EMP2 architecture, and due in 2016, might be axed in favour of a future LWB DS 4 sedan. That one would surely deliver better margins but politics might get in the way: DS cars are made by CAPSA, a JV with Changan, whereas Dongfeng is PSA’s partner for locally made Citroëns and Peugeots.
It’s in the D segment where there might be another upheaval: the C5 looks like a dead duck. It doesn’t sell well, the styling is dull and its class is crowded and soon (Q4, 2014) to be attacked by a new Passat. Surely no replacement can be justified? The trouble is, PSA needs the economy of scale to justify building the next Peugeot 508, especially now that the original plan to share an architecture and production plant with Opel-Vauxhall has fallen by the wayside. The Citroën is due to be replaced in 2016 and the Peugeot in 2017 so the decision on what to do needs to be made very soon, if it hasn’t already been taken.
What may well happen to the 508 and C5 is the abandonment of these models in Europe and China, their two main markets, and their replacement by the next DS 5 plus a couple of crossovers – the DS 6WR will enter production at a plant in Shenzhen from late 2014 and there could be a related ‘6008’ to follow. The Peugeot crossover might not happen but instead, a Passat CC-style model – ‘608’ – could be an effective 508 successor. This may be what is being hinted at by the debut of the Exalt concept at the imminent Beijing motor show. Lower volumes than a 508? Not necessarily, but yes, likely. Higher margins? Undoubtedly, and the Peugeot brand needs to keep gently pushing upwards towards where VW is.
Another Peugeot which could well face the chop is the low-volume RCZ, which is built by Magna Steyr. Next year, it will reach its fifth birthday – better to go out on a high rather than linger on. The car was meant to be an Audi TT rival but that’s a bit of a stretch for the brand, especially given that the once-proposed roadster body never made it to production.
Arguably the most important announcement in the ‘Back in the race’ media release was the news that DS is now a brand. It’s worth noting that nowhere in another press blurb from this week, this time the one for the DS 6WR, does the word Citroën appear. That also explains why the sub-branded Citroën DS3, DS4 and DS5 have in recent times been joined by the DS 5LS, not the Citroën DS5 LS. I noted the obvious numbers gaps of DS 1 and DS 2 earlier; will the second of these two be an eventual Audi Q1 rival to be built in both China and Europe? Seems a logical move to me.
We’ve already seen a concept version of a big limo, the DS9, but this is probably too much of a stretch for the brand at the moment. Better to first launch a DS 7 or DS 8 luxury minivan, and why not, when Shanghai GM is selling over 7,000 units a month of the Buick GL8? After that could come something with which to take on one of the D segment leaders, Geely’s Emgrand EC7 (more than 12,000 sold in March) and above it, the E-premium Audi A6 L (March sales total: 15,800).
We need some hard facts from PSA to tell us which cars will be phased out, which will continue, the names of models to be added, and how the newly independent DS brand will have its line-up opened out. The company’s 14 April statement was replete with marketing-speak but lacked specifics – and we also need to know is Peugeot’s experiment with pricey niche models such as the RCZ and 508 RXH to be expanded or dropped? Perhaps the above thoughts will in the interim provide readers with some guidance until we begin to see some hard actions over the coming year, and out to 2020.
