So far as 42-volt electrical systems for vehicles are concerned, the current debate centres on when, rather than if, they are to be introduced. First seriously promoted only a short period of time ago, the change from low voltage car systems to higher, 36-volt batteries and the attendant 42-volt charging circuit, has been embraced with almost indecent enthusiasm by engineers across the entire spectrum of the motor industry.
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As might be expected, such a change is likely to be the single most cataclysmic shift in vehicle design and build that the industry has ever faced.
Dampened enthusiasm
However, despite its initial enthusiasm for the new voltage standard and the design freedom that it brings, the industry has appeared lately to cool a little. This is natural; the initial euphoria has been dampened by the realisation that such change will come at a higher-than-expected cost. But that is not to say that the technology has been abandoned; the flames of enthusiasm have been dampened but not extinguished.
It is perhaps fortunate that the various ancillary elements of the motor industry – from battery manufacturers to the various test houses, and from Tier Two component suppliers to legislative bodies – are not yet ready to meet the demands of this new technology.
Adoption timetable slips
The timetable has thus slipped back from its original target of adoption in 2005 (about ten years after the concept became a serious proposition) to more like 2007. Countering this additional time is that once 42-volt technology begins to appear on vehicles in any meaningful volumes, it will start to cascade down at a faster rate.
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By GlobalDataWhat will be critical to the adoption of 42-volt technology will be the point at which it ceases to be more expensive than today’s relatively agricultural 14.2-volt components. This is unlikely to occur before 2015, although that date could move forward if, as is anticipated, hybrid systems that use partially 42-volt and part 14.2-volt power circuits take precedence over wholly 42-volt systems. Such a move would spread the cost to component and systems manufacturers of changing to higher voltage units, which would in turn impact positively on the overall cost of change at the rate at which that cost is absorbed by the motor industry.
What remains, once all arguments and discussions regarding the precise timescale of adoption are set aside, is that 42-volt systems are inevitable; it remains for the world’s motor industry to decide on the precise means of adoption.
The demand for change
Today’s drivers demand unprecedented levels of robustness and reliability from their vehicles. Adding ever-increasing levels of equipment – whether it is for comfort and convenience, or for safety and driver sensual appeal – puts increasing pressure on the car’s electrical system. This pressure is now reaching crisis point in certain highly equipped vehicles, and given the direction in which the auto industry is heading, will affect more and more cars as time progresses. One way of ensuring that the conflicting interests of drivers and manufacturers – providing yet more features without compromising reliability and durability – is to raise the power capability of the vehicle’s electrical system.
Changing over from the familiar 12-volt battery to a 36-volt unit – or from 14.2 to 42 volts, as it is routinely referred to – is set to be the single biggest change in vehicle content that the global auto industry has ever seen.
This will not be an overnight revolution, but like the oft-misnamed ‘industrial revolution’ of the early nineteenth century will be instead an accelerated period of evolution in which events are constantly changing. In much the same way as happened in northern England during the explosion of industrialisation, those who can best afford it will lead the adoption of new technology. This will be followed by a period of consolidation where those who initially could not afford to join the train find themselves unable to resist change. In practical terms this means that 42-volt power systems will first find their way into vehicles which carry a high profit margin. Later, once the technology has both started to gain momentum and reduce in cost, manufacturers will be virtually forced to equip mass market, low margin vehicles as a matter of course.
42-volt will make an impact in the 2006 model year
The time scale of activity is a key issue. Most of the major vehicle manufacturers and their Tier One suppliers proclaim themselves almost ready to deliver vehicles into their dealer networks for sale to customers. However, the rest of the auto industry (the dealer service departments, the component suppliers and other affiliated businesses) is still some way off being ready. Although General Motors anticipate on-sale dates of 2003 for the first of their 42-volt vehicles, in reality these will be treated as an advance guard, used to develop an infrastructure and working practices.
The reality for commonplace sightings of 42-volt cars is more likely to be something like three years on from that date, with the 2006 model year representing the first meaningful rush of vehicles to market. The rate of evolution is then likely to be rapid, particularly if sub-assembly and component suppliers take the sensible long view and pitch prices at a level which will encourage auto manufacturers to broaden the application base.
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Add to these the desire to add yet more equipment to cars – at the same time streamlining the production process by allowing outsourcing of complete assemblies – and the argument in favour of the adoption of 42 volts as an industry standard gains ever-growing levels of compulsion.
The various strands which will knit together to form a cohesive adoption of 42-volt systems are detailed in the first part of a new report from ABOUT Automotive. Weighing against these issues are initial arguments concerning the increased cost and availability of all-new components, and the residual impact on those businesses which are positioned further down the pyramid of motor manufacturing, in particular those involved in dealership service workshops and their suppliers. These issues are dealt with in the second part of the report, which also takes in other ramifications surrounding the adoption of this technology.
