Four years ago a clearly frustrated Renault spokesman exclaimed: “Point final, point final” or ‘end of story’ to me down the line from Paris concerning the fantastical tale of the so-called spy scandal.
Even re-reading the incident now in 2015 elicits a shake of the head something so bizarre could occur in the sober-suited world of big business, but “point final” it certainly doesn’t seem to be, with interest in France still fanning the flames of those extraordinary days.
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To briefly recap, three Renault senior executives were suspected of industrial espionage, electric vehicle technology was thought to be an element of the story, the trio were suspended, one of them spirited to Switzerland to examine supposed secret bank accounts, bizarrely flown back without any light being shed and subsequently all of them were completely exonerated with rumours of a colossal great EUR11m pay-off to ease the pain, a sweetener so tasty none of them appears to have uttered a word about it since.
Into that maelstrom stepped the French security service, the DCRI, now morphed into the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Intérieure (DGSI) and government Ministers, while Renault’s then number two, Patrick Pelata and not his boss, Carlos Ghosn, appeared to fall on his sword and exited stage left.
I mention all this because it appears the whole incredible – I learnt a new word in French during the escapade – “rocambolesque” or fantastical – story still appears to enjoy considerable currency in France.
It also remains apposite because of increasing noises emanating from Paris and London surrounding the future of diesel vehicles in those capitals and set against the enthusiasm – or lack of it – for purely electric vehicles as urban solutions.
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By GlobalDataIn a period where motorists have suddenly become giddy on cheap fuel, which in the UK at least, briefly threatened to hover at GBP1 (US$1.54) per litre, those EV solutions suddenly don’t seem quite as attractive as they once were.
With reports of vast quantities of Saudi oil flooding the market in a bid to counter the increasing availability of fracked energy, latest estimates suggest a lower pump price could be with us for another 12 months, leading Renault’s previous prediction some 10% of the global car parc could be EVs by 2020, to be distinctly on the optimistic side.
Here in the UK, the relative generosity of the British Exchequer – not a phrase frequently used in the immediate aftermath of the post-recession economic wreckage – of GBP43m for EV subsidy is reportedly relatively intact. Even the tantalising carrot of a 25% subsidy to a maximum of GBP5,000, doesn’t appear to have enticed the great British public any more than our friends across the English Channel, although the latest wheeze has seen Paris dangle an attractive EUR10,000 incentive to entice citizens to go electric – or at least green an ageing car parc.
Those EUR10,000 plans to encourage conversion to ‘green vehicles,’ form part of the country’s 2015 environmental road map outlined by Energy and Sustainable Development Minister, Segolene Royal and are part of a backdrop which has seen some hint the fuel could be phased out by 2020.
But here’s the rub. With the ever-rising reliability of modern cars, coupled with manufacturers squeezing yet more kilometres per litre out of downsizing engines, relentless pressure on oil prices and jittery consumers still anxiously monitoring which way the economics vane is pointing, the desire, the need even, for pure electric is just not yet there.
All that and it’s clear why the remorseless popularity of hybrids has seen the breed become relatively commonplace on European roads, rather than pure EV. Maybe that is the interim future before a perfect storm exists once again for EVs to take their place in the sun.
The manufacturers are somewhat in a chicken and egg situation too. Low take-up of their product could be artificially keeping prices high – unless major automakers – perhaps in a hitherto unconceived alliance of unlikely bedfellows – are prepared to make conventional fuel-free products loss-leaders and club together in a brave new all-electric offering.
But then consumers could also legitimately ask, ‘are electric cars really fuel-free?’ Generating electricity still requires power to be sourced from somewhere and given the unpredictable nature of wind and tide, the majority of that energy still has to be generated through the burning of fossil fuels or the supply of a nuclear option to a country’s national grid.
One issue which may tilt the balance in favour of EVs however, is sheer force of demographics. Paris and London – two of the world’s metropolitan giants with their vast populations – continue to act as great convection currents sucking ever-rising numbers into their already choked mega centres.
If those two cities are not to endure the same fate as so many smog-laden Chinese cities, perhaps their respective Mayors will force through legislation to drive conventional ICEs off the road and greater focus on EV promotion and green public transport alternatives.
London is already seeing the first fruits of that push, led by its effervescent Mayor, Boris Johnson, who famously champions green issues somewhat eccentricly, with his trademark blonde mop bouncing on his omnipresent bike around town.
Love or loathe him though, his ‘hail fellow well met’ schtick disguises a steely and canny economic brain, combined with a genuine flair for what the public wants, witness the reemergence in a resolutely modern form, but with a nod to a nostalgic past, of the new Routemaster diesel-electric bus in its signature bright red.
The UK Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) put some heat on the debate recently to push its case that “diesel is not a dirty word.”
This from SMMT chief executive, Mike Hawes, whose body says the latest technology vehicles are fitted with filters that capture 99% of harmful soot particulates, while exhaust after-treatments dramatically reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx).
Indeed, ‘real world’ tests conducted by Transport for London on the cross-city London 159 bus route showed a 95% reduction in emissions of NOx compared to older technology vehicles.
“[Auto] industry shares public concerns about air quality and has responded by investing billions of pounds in advanced diesel commercial vehicles that are 95% cleaner than their predecessors,” says Hawes.
“Modern diesel technology can make a vital contribution to cleaning up the air we all breathe but it cannot do the job on its own. The key now is uptake. It’s time to stop demonising diesel.”
Maybe the Routemaster is an example of where that ‘real world’ the SMMT talks about comes face to face with the EV boffins, offering as it does a diesel-electric hybrid, which is claimed to produce half the CO2 and a quarter of the particulate matter as well as NOX.
Londoners and Parisians like to complain about the state of their relative public transport systems, but the reality is both are extraordinarily good and are becoming cleaner and greener all the time.
Routemasters in London and electric trams in Paris are just the foretaste of a future that will surely see a multiplicity of energy offerings, not one skewed entirely to one form or another.
Renault’s fragility when it came to the so-called spying scandal shows just how much it may be betting on the electric farm, but the reality may have a slightly less filmic quality to it and one which could help us all breathe a little easier.
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