History suggests that the US election result is unlikely to have a material impact on the global truck industry in the very near term beyond creating uncertainty. In the mid- to long-term, however, the impact of Trump’s return to the presidency could be significant, particularly via emissions regulations, trade, and the focus on domestic manufacturing.

Trump’s previous stance on environmental regulations included attempts to roll back emissions standards, including the Clean Air Act waivers that allow California to set stricter vehicle emissions standards. A second term could see similar actions, potentially scaling back or delaying the implementation of GHG standards for heavy-duty vehicles and curtailing incentives for zero-emission trucks. This could prompt manufacturers worldwide to reconsider emissions-focused investments, particularly for markets driven by US demand.

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Reduced regulatory pressure in the US could slow the adoption of Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) technologies worldwide. If Trump’s policies favour traditional diesel and gas engines over battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks, global manufacturers may re-evaluate investment in ZEV research and production, especially where aligned with US export markets.

Trump’s approach to trade has previously included tariffs and renegotiations that affected global automotive supply chains. A renewed emphasis on “America First” manufacturing could impact international truck manufacturers and parts suppliers by introducing tariffs or incentivizing US-based production.

Forecast changes

  • The EU+ truck production forecast was reduced last month following a slew of unimpressive Q3 results. The 2025 forecast has also been cut, but not as drastically. As a result, we now expect EU+ truck production to fall by -24% this year and to rise only modestly (+4%) next year. These forecast adjustments predated the US election result.
  • Following the US election result, Chinese forecasts have been reduced based on the assumption that Trump’s tariffs will be detrimental to Chinese exports, with negative consequences for industrial production (one of the key drivers of truck demand).

Impact on North America

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  • The NA truck forecast is likely to be adjusted in the next monthly update.
  • We believe that the EPA’27 mandate is unlikely to be rolled back at this stage. Since it was promulgated in Trump’s first term and is no longer technology-forcing, we don’t anticipate much disruption from this source.
  • There is, however, a substantial risk that GHG3 will be rolled back, along with renewed efforts to challenge CARB and its unique authority to establish policies regulating air quality and emissions standards in California, grandfathered under the Clean Air Act.
  • Our modelling indicates that ZEVs are at – or very near –cost parity for return-to-base truck operations. Although adoption may progress more slowly, particularly in heavy-duty segments, it is likely that uptake will continue to grow even without strict regulatory mandates.

Impact on Europe

  • Europe (including UK) will be under increasing pressure to follow suit and reevaluate climate targets, especially now that the German “traffic light coalition” has collapsed and Friedrich Merz is likely to head up a new CDU-led government with elections likely to take place in February 2025 (tbc). Prime Minister Starmer in the UK will also be under increasing pressure to revise proposed net zero timelines.
  • Ukraine: Though the probability of a swift end to the war remains low, it is worth noting that a peace deal – however it came about – would undoubtedly have significant consequences for the European truck industry, primarily through its impact on energy costs, supply chains, and regional stability.

Zita Zigan, Director, Global Commercial Vehicle Forecasts, GlobalData

This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.