Autonomous vehicles could actually make traffic congestion worse, seeing an increase of private vehicles unless they are put to use in shared fleets and integrated with traditional public transport.

A paper produced by the International Association of Public Transport (UITP)  – Autonomous vehicles: a potential game changer for urban mobility – argues that, despite the risk of increased congestion due to car travel becoming even more comfortable and attractive, an alternative exists.

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The policy brief sets out various scenarios for the roll-out of AVs, depending on how they are regulated and used. In the worst case, this could lead to more cars on the road, more congestion and more urban sprawl.

But the UITP said that if AVs are put to use in shared fleets as ‘robo-taxis’, mini-buses or in car-sharing fleets, they could dramatically reduce the number of cars on the road by reaching people and places it was too difficult to before, plugging first/last-mile gaps and feeding into public transport trunk lines.

Secretary seneral, Alain Flausch, said: “AVs offer the chance for a fundamental change – as a key part of tomorrow’s integrated transport systems with public transport as a backbone – but if we do not act now vehicle automation might even further increase the volume and use of private cars with all of the associated negative externalities [sic].”

Shared fleets, integrated with traditional public transport offer the possibility of a better urban future, cutting noise and environmental pollution, improving traffic efficiency and parking and in the process liberating vast amounts of urban space for other purposes. When 1.2m people around the world die each year in car-related deaths, 90% of which are due to human error, the road safety benefits are also significant.

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Ensuring the successful roll-out of AVs, is also contingent on the use of fully driverless operation without which AVs will not be able to form a new mode of transport and would be unable to enhance existing public transport.

The UITP added public authorities must take an active role in the roll-out of AVs to ensure their shared use with measures to encourage shared mobility and limit single car occupancy (eg road pricing or taxation) and provide ‘Mobility as a Service’ platforms (as whoever controls the platform controls travel behaviour).

Trials should also begin on public roads to see how best to integrate AVs into the mobility ecosystem and preparations made for the impact on employment as some driving jobs could disappear and others needing specific skills could arise.