Data released by Autodata shows that the US light vehicle market declined by 1.3% in the month of October to an estimated 1.35m units. Analysts had been predicting a small fall, but the decline also reflected one fewer reporting days than in the same month last year.

Analysts said strong underlying demand also reflected heavy promotions and discounting during the month, which is likely to continue in the final two months of the year.

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Autodata’s data relied on estimates of BMW sales because BMW has hit internal difficulties that have delayed its sales reporting (a full analysis of the month’s sales is now here – ed).

Autodata reported that the SAAR was a relatively healthy looking 18.09m units during September (which compares with a running rate of 18.6m units in September – which was lifted by hurricane related replacement sales). So far this year, sales stand at 14.229m units, some 1.7% below the same period last year.

Most forecasters foresee a small decline in the US light vehicle market in 2017. After  hitting around 17.5m units in 2016, it is now likely to turn out at around 17.4m units. The US economy’s outlook remains highly uncertain and the outlook for interest rates is for some upward movement over the next

A further area of caution is the large number of lease maturities repopulating the used-car market. Analysts point out that while it creates demand for a vehicle, there are also more used vehicles competing for customer attention and potentially taking sales out of the new vehicle market.

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