Figures released by JD Power/LMC show that new car sales in Western Europe in April fell by 6.6% over the same month of last year to 1.233 million units. For the first four months of the year, JD Power/LMC said that West European new car sales reached 5.065 million units – 3.8% below the same period of last year.

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However, the company said that April’s comparison with last year looked worse due to the timing of public holidays. JD Power/LMC’s estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualised selling rate (SAAR) which compensates for calendar and seasonal effects, shows an underlying level of demand of 13.75 million cars/year in the month, slightly lower than the 13.9 million average for the three preceding months.

The company also said that most of the deterioration to the SAAR in April was due to the ending of an Italian incentive scheme. For all countries other than Italy, the SAAR has remained very consistent in the year to date.

JD Power/LMC added that the April sales result appeared to confirm the absence of a significant adverse ‘war effect’ in Europe.

“I am sceptical about any large Iraq war impact on these numbers,” said Charles Young of JD Power/LMC. “Certainly there was no visible impact on car sales from the previous Gulf War, and the results, which are in line with the previous months, simply reflect the deterioration of economic prospects in the region, which have yet to feel the beneficial impact of the fall in oil prices”.

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JD Power/LMC said that the April result that will have been watched out for with the most interest was Italy’s. A severe hangover had been expected, following the surge to sales there in March caused by the ending of government incentives. In the event, the Italian hangover was not as bad as feared, but JD Power/LMC cautioned that it may have been postponed rather than cancelled.