Thailand’s vehicle market faces decline in 2014 as it reels under the effects of a dried up incentive scheme and the continuing adverse impact of political unrest on the nation’s economy.

Sales in south-east Asia’s largest market fell by over one-third in the fourth quarter, as the market adjusted to the withdrawal of first time buyer incentives at the end of last year. Deliveries of vehicles sold under this programme have now almost entirely dried up.

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Thai vehicle sales in 2013 fell by 7.7% to 1,325,079 units, from a record 1,436,335 units in 2012, with a strong first half more than cancelled out by a weak second half as the market re-adjusted to life without incentives.

With buyers having brought forward sales to take advantage of the government incentives, and with growing political unrest in the country, not many people expect a return to growth anytime soon.

Toyota forecasts that Thai automotive industry sales will decline by almost 14% to 1.15m vehicles in 2014, based on the latest economic projections.

If Thailand’s political unrest is prolonged and economic growth is hit as a result, industry sales may even miss that target according to remarks made by Kyoichi Tanada, president of the Toyota Motor Thai unit today.

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He also told journalists that Toyota is unsure whether it would increase investment in Thailand if its political crisis continued.

New vehicle sales in the ASEAN region’s six main markets declined by 12% to 873,336 units in the third quarter, from 992,567 units a year earlier, according to data compiled exclusively for just-auto.

Full-year regional sales increased by just 1.8% 3,452,166 units, from 3,479,427 units a year earlier, with worsening sales in Thailand weighing heavily on the regional market.

Read more: Latest analysis of ASEAN vehicle markets