Brazilian automakers and importers hiked first half 2008 sales to 1.41m, according to trade group Anfavea, putting the country ahead of three of the four traditionally strong European markets of UK, Italy and France.
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Russia grew even more – 41% – and, with 1.6m sales units in the first six months, it is now fifth worldwide behind the US, China, Japan and Germany. Brazil is sixth, up from eighth last year.
Anfavea confirmed its forecast for full-year 2008: domestic sales up 24% to 3.06m vehicles; total production up 15% to 3.423m; exports, not counting agricultural machinery, up 5% to $11.5bn. The only cloud on the horizon is export units (both assembled and in CKD kit form) seen dropping 1.5% – the climb in value of the Brazilian real has not helped here.
Anfavea said the lower second half growth rate is largely due to statistics – the comparative period in 2007 was very high.
The domestic market remains strong despite climbing interest rates and inflation and a slight decline in consumer confidence, a trend confirmed by the July first half results.
If Anfavea’s forecast is right, both Fiat and Volkswagen will sell more cars in Brazil than their homelands of Italy and Germany, respectively, in 2008.
And Brazil will overtake France in production to rank sixth globally after Japan, China, US, Germany and South Korea.
Boosting production has been a mammoth challenge. The huge growth occurred over just three years leaving insufficient time for suppliers and automakers themselves to react. Almost all are permanently overstressed running three shifts.
But VW Brazil’s CEO Thomas Schmall said there is still room to grow by enlarging its four plants in Brazil and Argentina.
He also made an intriguing comment to business newspaper Gazeta Mercantil: “There is a 20% possibility for us to use the capacity of another automaker not yet at full steam.”
He did not reveal the company or how this collaboration could work but it is not too difficult to imagine it is Renault. Though the French brand practically doubled output so far this year – it ranked fifth in the domestic market – it is still only running at 50% of capacity.
Ford is at full throttle at its São Bernardo do Campo (São Paulo state) plant and other sites but union problems are discouraging any expansion ideas right now.
Fernando Calmon
