Renault CEO and ACEA chairman Carlos Ghosn has said in an interview that he doesn’t believe the European car market will recover until 2011 and that living without the scrappage incentives that have temporarily lifted demand this year ‘will not be easy’.

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In an interview with the International Herald Tribune, Ghosn voiced fears about the consequences for the market when scrappage incentives end.


“The incentives have given us some breathing room and obviously we are worried about what happens when they end,” Ghosn said.


“We are worried because we know it will have a negative impact. Hopefully, the economy will have improved enough by then so that the impact will not be too dramatic.”


Professional forecasters, such as JD Power, have warned that the scrappage boost to European car sales marks a situation that will not likely be sustainable beyond 2009 and forecast that the West European car market will slip back in 2010.

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JD Power Automotive Forecasting says that car sales next year in Western Europe will be significantly down on this year, perhaps falling lower than 11.5m units having reached a full-year total of around 13m units in 2009.


National governments are expected to come under pressure to extend incentives – Germany has already done so.


“It would take a miracle for the car industry to see growth in Europe before 2011,” Ghosn told the IHT.


Ghosn acknowledged that the incentives could not last forever, but he and other European auto executives have argued that other government support was still critical, especially access to loans for the industry itself to help it survive the fallout of the financial crisis.


Ghosn also said he is sceptical that all of the current and new companies could survive.


“I don’t think the movie is finished, what we’ve seen are chapters,” he said. “I’m not sure that at the end of the day there will be more industry players than before.”