In H1 2025, ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) sales marginally increased by 2% compared to the same period last year. The positive result was supported by stronger performances in the Philippines and Vietnam—the two smallest markets in the region—which helped to offset weaknesses in Malaysia, Indonesia, and
Thailand—the three largest markets in ASEAN5.
Following four consecutive years of growth since 2021, LV demand in the Philippines continued to rise by 6% YoY in H1 2025, thanks to strong economic growth. The country’s GDP expanded by 5.4% YoY and 5.5% YoY in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively, driven by strong domestic consumption and government expenditure. Additionally, the central bank cut the interest rate to 5.5% in April and continued to reduce it to 5.25% in June, marking the lowest rate in 2.5 years. The lower interest rate should support new vehicle sales due to the reduced cost of ownership.
For the outlook, we have kept the Philippines’ 2025 sales forecast unchanged at 493k units (+4% YoY). However, the forecast carries upside risks since a) the central bank has hinted at further interest rate cuts during the remainder of the year, which would be positive for new vehicle sales and business investment, and b) the average annual sales volumes before the pandemic (2015-19) stood at 395k units per year, which is still higher than the post-pandemic average (2020-24) at 361k units. This could imply room for pent-up demand.
Vietnam’s LV sales surged by 41% YoY in H1 2025. VinFast, the Vietnamese BEV manufacturer, has been a significant driver behind this growth, with the company achieving total deliveries of 67.6k EVs in the country. Of particular note are the VF 3 and VF 5 which emerged as the top-selling models. Looking ahead, we maintain a cautious outlook for 2025 and project total LV sales of 521k units (+12% YoY). Growth in H2 2025 is anticipated to decelerate, primarily due to a high comparative base established in the latter half of 2024. However, average monthly volumes for H2 2025 are expected to be approximately 47.6k units, which is higher than the H1 average of 39.2k units. Nonetheless, it is important to note that these volumes compare to a much lower H1 2024 monthly average of 27.8k units, while the H2 2024 average jumped to 50k units as the VinFast VF 3—the current best-selling model— was launched in August 2024 and contributed to the stronger performance.
In contrast, Malaysia’s LV sales dropped by 4% YoY in H1 2025, and the registration data showed that volumes in July fell by 2% YoY. As such, the country’s LV market has now declined by 3% YoY from January to July overall. This is somewhat unexpected, given that the market set new record highs for three consecutive years: 711k units in 2022, 792k units in 2023, and 817k units in 2024. Therefore, a slowdown in sales is unsurprising.
For the outlook, we have marginally cut Malaysia’s 2025 sales total to 776k units, reflecting a 5% YoY decline. This is due to July sales being weaker than our projections, as well as an expected slowdown in GDP growth in H2 2025 as a result of the uncertainty in global trade.
Indonesia’s H1 2025 sales fell by 8% YoY. Recent data showed that volumes in July continued to decline by 18% YoY, even though the local association previously expected that the GAIKINDO Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS), which started from July 24, would boost LV demand due to new model launches and aggressive sales campaigns. However, the weakness in July could be attributed to a) new model launches and order bookings at the event being delivered in August, and b) although the number of visitors increased compared to last year’s event, order bookings were lower as buyers are considering and comparing options before making a decision. As such, Indonesia’s sales outlook remains unchanged at 749k units (-6% YoY), but we will promptly lower the outlook if demand in August continues to fall.
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By GlobalDataLV sales in Thailand dropped by 3% YoY in H1 2025. A closer examination of the period reveals a mixed performance across segments: the PV sector recorded positive growth of 4% YoY, while the LCV segment faced significant challenges and experienced a substantial drop of 16% YoY. However, preliminary data for July indicates a nearly 10% YoY increase in LV sales. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the LV market in 2025 remains unchanged from our previous forecasts, with volumes anticipated to reach 571k units (+1% YoY). This projection is tempered by expectations of a potential slowdown in sales in August, attributed to ongoing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, as well as flooding in the northern regions of the country.
In conclusion, ASEAN 2025 sales have been slightly lowered from 3.12 million units in our previous report to 3.11 million units in this report due to the downward adjustment for Malaysia. Moreover, the regional market outlook faces downside risks due to the negative sales momentum in Indonesia and the Thai-Cambodia border conflict, coupled with rising political uncertainty in Thailand. Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended the Prime Minister from duty in July due to a leaked phone conversation with the ex-Cambodia Prime Minister, with a ruling set to take place on August 29.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
