In this interview, Matthew Beecham talked to Alexander Moser, Supervisor Advanced Product Engineering, Clutch Systems, BorgWarner Drivetrain Systems, about the market position and prospects for dual clutch transmissions (DCTs).
just-auto: Do you think that transmissions have more potential these days to help reduce fuel consumption and at a lower cost than, say, engine-internal measures?
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Alexander Moser: To optimally reduce future fuel consumption, all promising technologies that improve the efficiency of the overall powertrain will need to be considered. Only the proper combination of innovative engine and transmission technologies will provide the best fuel economy results for reasonable costs. Reaching these solutions will be a function of collaboration.
Although DCTs have high-speed resistance, they are still more expensive than torque converter transmissions (depending, of course, on the segment you are looking at). Or is all that price relationship changing?
Yes, this is changing. The newest innovations offer higher fuel efficiency at the same time lowering the cost of the overall transmission system. The cost improvement with the combination of high-speed resistance, high thermal robustness, high comfort and no torque limitation makes the dual clutch transmission attractive for all vehicle segments. The economics will also improve as the volume of these components increase over the next few years as DCTs become more mainstream.
How do you see the global transmission market evolving in terms of manual, automatics, etc? And what do you see happening in those emerging markets such as China and India?
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By GlobalDataWith increases in living standards and expectations in the emerging markets, the demand for more comfort worldwide will also increase, resulting in more customers seeking the driving experience of an automatic transmission. From an economic point of view, DCTs can be produced in existing facilities using the equipment required for production of manual transmissions. Even if manuals continue to dominate the market in the lowest cost environment, we expect the share of automatics will grow.
In terms of the future of manual gearboxes, some people expect manual transmissions to remain attractive in cost-sensitive markets while automated transmissions will gradual gain market share. Other people anticipate a gradually decreasing market for manual transmissions as drivers like the comfort and convenience while engineers like the ability to control the shift points in order to meet emissions and CO2 requirements. What do you anticipate will happen to the manual transmission market?
We expect a big change will occur when nearly all engines have a start/stop function to avoid engine idling. Future automatic transmissions will still operate very comfortably, with drivers only having to release the brake and drive away. A manual transmission will still be inconvenient and tedious for drivers who will have to disengage the gears and release the clutch pedal every time the vehicle comes to a halt (and is turned off). As said earlier, one of the benefits of an automatic transmission for the engineer is the possibility to control the shift points to achieve the best fuel consumption. For the passionate sportive driver, most automatic transmissions offer a manual tip mode, thus giving the driver the freedom to manually select the gears just like in a manual transmission. It seems likely that automatic transmissions will eventually take market share away from manual transmissions.
Given the global economic climate, need to control emissions, demand from BRIC countries and increasing oil price, it suggest that no one transmission technology will be the winner. Would you agree?
The winner will be the technology offering high fuel efficiency at an acceptable cost while answering the increasing customer comfort requirements. DCT is a technology which offers all these features by using existing production equipment, thus saving resources and investments. DCT promises to be a long-term mainstream technology.
What do you expect to happen with CVTs in North America and Europe? Do you see CVTs having a brighter future in Japan where the roads are more congested with lower average speeds?
All significant activities for CVT programmes that have been started in North America and Europe are phasing out. Japan will be the only region with CVT growth, not only due to lower average speeds but also due to the fact that Japanese companies invested heavily in this technology in the past. CVT has an overall efficiency disadvantage compared to DCT, even if a portion of engine efficiency is improved by operating the engine at the best fuel efficiency point. Thus, the future of CVT is questionable outside of Japan.
We’ve seen the introduction of gearboxes with seven and eight speeds which can improve efficiency. From a technical point of view, I guess that gives the traditional planetary automatic a new lease of life? On the flipside, does the additional cost and weight of more gears cancel out the efficiency gains?
From a technical point of view, 5-7 gears are enough to achieve very good efficiency for all major vehicle segments. There are also new smart powerflow layouts for 8-10 gears for reasonable cost, high efficiency and low weight. The choice of gears and ratios does depend on choice of transmission layout and components used, e.g. the need for a very high first gear ratio to launch the vehicle may require an additional gear. Lowering the first gear ratio, and thus having more overdrive/economy gears, is an effective method to improve fuel efficiency without needing to increase the number of gears.
How do you see the future for electronically-actuated AMTs, whether integrated into hybrid or electric powertrains or combined with a conventional internal combustion engine?
The question is: who is willing to accept the performance and comfort of such a system? Currently AMTs are not liked in many markets. In the future, we anticipate increases in performance and comfort expectations in all segments. To make an AMT better in these areas would cost about the same as producing a DCT, which offers much more performance, comfort and the flexibility to integrate with a hybrid or electric powertrain.
I guess the relative simplicity of engineering, low cost and fuel-saving potential of AMTs are the main selling points?
Yes, these are the positive aspects. The gap between cost, fuel efficiency and comfort is being filled by DCTs. There are innovative solutions for future transmissions, which will be competitive in cost and efficiency compared to AMTs by offering the comfort and robustness of a planetary step automatic transmission. The wet dual clutch technology, combined with hydraulic actuation and supplied by on-demand electric pumps is the optimal solution to satisfy customers in all segments.
