In October 2024, China’s Light Vehicle (LV) market demonstrated resilience, with sales and production volumes showing consistent upward trajectories. Domestic LV sales, excluding exports, reached 2.5 million units, marking a 6.2% increase year-on-year (YoY) and a notable 10.1% increase month-on-month (MoM). This dual growth underscores the market’s strength and vitality for the month.
Breaking down the figures by model type, Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales accounted for 2.3 million units, showcasing a significant YoY increase of 10.4% and a substantial MoM rise of 10.3%. Conversely, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) continued to face headwinds, with a 7.6% MoM uptick but a substantial YoY decline of 27.2%. Cumulatively, for the first ten months of 2024, LV sales reached 19.7 million units, reflecting a YoY downturn of 1.7%. Within this, PV sales totalled 17.7 million units, with a marginal YoY decrease of 0.5%, while CV sales stood at 2.0 million units, marking a more pronounced YoY decline of 10.6%.
Go deeper with GlobalData
The domestic market is gaining momentum, propelled by the ongoing temporary scrappage subsidy programme and substantial price reductions. In October, the selling rate reached an annualised 27.6 million units, a 7.6% increase from the previous month. This rate is marginally above the 27 million units/year recorded in June and July, before the doubling of the scrappage subsidy in August. For the year to date, the average selling rate stands at 24.7 million units/year, slightly below last year’s full-year LV sales of 25.2 million units.
The ongoing price war has made major vehicle dealers increasingly cautious about inventory management. Many dealers are now reluctant to accumulate excessive inventory to guard against the risks associated with potential price reductions. As a result, the wholesale figures have been slow to reflect the impact of the old-for-new subsidy policy. Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicate that the growth rate of passenger car retail sales in September and October outpaced that of wholesale sales, suggesting that the market’s underlying momentum is stronger than the wholesale data might indicate.
The sales forecast remains largely unchanged, with only minor adjustments for the full year of 2024. We anticipate a modest increase in sales, projecting 1.5% growth to reach 25.6 million units this year, followed by a 1.7% rise to 26.1 million units in 2025. However, the protectionist policies advocated by US President-elect Trump are expected to have a greater impact on the Chinese economy in the short term, which in turn will affect new car sales. We will continue to closely monitor any policy developments under the new administration to assess their potential impact on our forecasts.
In terms of production, in October 2024 China’s LV market experienced substantial growth, with the total number of Light Vehicles manufactured reaching an impressive 2.9 million units. This figure represents a substantial YoY increase of 4.9%, underscoring the dynamism of the market and the effectiveness of recent policy measures to stimulate growth. Within this segment, the PV portion was a key driver of this growth, with a total of 2.7 million units produced, marking a significant YoY increase of 7.9%. In addition to policy factors, the concentrated launch of new models at the end of the year and various preferential promotions impacting retail prices have also greatly attracted consumers. Alongside these factors, the unexpected growth in exports has also had a significant impact on production. Despite the overall positive trend, the CV sector has seen a decline, with production falling by 19.7% YoY to 242k units. This downturn may be indicative of broader economic challenges and the impact of regulatory changes in the industry.
How well do you really know your competitors?
Access the most comprehensive Company Profiles on the market, powered by GlobalData. Save hours of research. Gain competitive edge.
Thank you!
Your download email will arrive shortly
Not ready to buy yet? Download a free sample
We are confident about the unique quality of our Company Profiles. However, we want you to make the most beneficial decision for your business, so we offer a free sample that you can download by submitting the below form
By GlobalDataLooking deeper into the figures, we can see that production by Chinese OEMs has displayed a positive trend, with a YoY increase of 19.3%. By contrast, output from JV brands has declined significantly, with a YoY decrease of 20.8%. The production cuts by joint venture automakers have limited overall output growth in the Chinese market to some extent. The shift highlights the transformation in the Chinese market, where local automakers are making progress while JV brands need to reassess their strategies to remain competitive.
From an overseas market perspective, China’s LV export sector has exhibited remarkable strength, with a total of 515k units shipped overseas in October, marking a significant YoY increase of 12.9%. This upward trend was consistent throughout the month, with PV leading the charge at 465k units exported, corresponding to an 11.0% YoY rise. CVs also experienced substantial growth, exporting 50k units and demonstrating a remarkable 34.3% YoY increase. Cumulatively, from January to October 2024, LV exports reached 4.6 million units, achieving robust 29.9% YoY growth. The primary factors driving this year’s growth include the enhanced competitiveness of Chinese-made products, modest expansion in the Central and South American markets, and the significant substitution of international brands by Chinese vehicles in the Russian market amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Besides the ongoing surge in NEV exports, the improved competitiveness of traditional ICE vehicle exports has also contributed to the overall increase in shipments.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
