What’s the issue?

Tesla is looking to make more cars in the world’s biggest electric car market. It is aiming to make a million cars a year in China by the end of the decade and cement its presence in China as a premium brand and leader in the high-growth EV segment. Therefore, another circa 500,000 unit-capacity plant is needed.

Key takeaway

A second Tesla vehicle manufacturing plant in China – in or near to Shanghai where it already has a plant – is a racing certainty. Assuming Tesla can reach around one million units of production in China in 2029, that would equate to around 2.8% of the country’s forecast total sales of 33.6 million units that year. This would bring Tesla in line with the Chinese sales figures for BMW and Mercedes – comparable premium rivals that are likely to be cross-shopped by potential Chinese Tesla customers.

How well do you really know your competitors?

Access the most comprehensive Company Profiles on the market, powered by GlobalData. Save hours of research. Gain competitive edge.

Company Profile – free sample

Thank you!

Your download email will arrive shortly

Not ready to buy yet? Download a free sample

We are confident about the unique quality of our Company Profiles. However, we want you to make the most beneficial decision for your business, so we offer a free sample that you can download by submitting the below form

By GlobalData
Visit our Privacy Policy for more information about our services, how we may use, process and share your personal data, including information of your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications. Our services are intended for corporate subscribers and you warrant that the email address submitted is your corporate email address.

As a result, Tesla’s production target for the country seems fairly sustainable based on GlobalData forecasts.

Data points

Tesla’s forecast global output ramp-up to 2029

Analyst comment

Mike Vousden, Automotive Analyst at GlobalData, comments:

“Tesla will be prioritizing China because the country is both the largest new vehicle market and the largest market for battery electric vehicles, so offers more growth potential than traditional markets.

See Also:

“By 2029, Tesla’s total production is forecast to reach 2.56 million units – 900,000 from the US, 700,000 from Germany and 950,000 from China. That figure would again put it, in volume terms, in a similar position to BMW and Mercedes, which both produce around 2.5 million units per year, and can be considered direct competitors to Tesla.

“The expansion strategy for China is clearly central to Tesla’s growth plan and to it continuing to be considered – especially by investors – as a sector leader.”