With a range of more than 400 miles, the new VW ID VIZZION concept just shown in Geneva has set tongues wagging. Could consumers be ready to leave ‘range anxiety’ behind and switch to all-electric motoring? Analyst Richard Gane offers some thoughts on unfolding e-mobility.
When the first all-electric car was marketed for sale in the UK in 2010, manufacturers knew that sales would be limited and the biggest concern for consumers was their range on a single charge, which was initially just 40 to 80 miles.
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Things have moved on since then. VW’s ID VIZZION may well be the first affordable all-electric car to reach the marketplace with a range of more than 400 miles. It is unlikely to be the last. Hyundai is also launching its new Kona EV, complete with a range of more than 300 miles, and other makers are developing vehicles offering similar performance.
Improving battery technology is making this change possible. At present, most EVs on sale have battery sizes ranging from around 40 kWh to 100kWh, with the 85kWh option achieving a range of about 300 miles. The Chinese car maker, BYD Auto, has an electric car which can achieve a 300-mile range when equipped with a 60kWh battery. It is therefore possible that a car with 400-mile range, would need a battery of around 80 to 120kWh.
As well as their improved performance, the cost of batteries per unit of power delivery is decreasing. Lithium-ion batteries currently cost around $300 per kWh and this is expected to fall to $100 by 2026. However, batteries still represent a significant proportion of the overall cost of an electric car – about 50 percent for a car made in 2017.
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Of course, it’s not all about battery power and cost, it is important to remember that usage and driving environment have a significant effect on range. For example, a five percent gradient will double the power requirement and using ancillaries such as lighting, heating and air conditioning all take their toll.
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By GlobalDataIt is clear that even though the issue of ‘range anxiety’ is starting to diminish, many barriers to take-up remain. Less than two percent of new cars sold in the UK are electric, according to the latest figures from the SMMT, and sales of vehicles with an internal combustion engine are still growing at a faster rate, in absolute numbers terms, than their eco-friendly counterparts. So, what’s the problem now?
One problem is that vehicles offering a much better range, such as the VW VIZZION, aren’t yet widely available. At the same time, the current low oil prices are supporting demand for cars powered by internal combustion engines, and some motorists may be just sticking with the technology they know for as long as possible. A hike in the oil price could provide the economic pressure needed to make more motorists consider buying an electric car.
However, many other problems need to be overcome. Among them is the time it takes to charge a car battery. For the current generation of electric cars, manufacturers typically recommend 6.6 kW chargers, which can be incredibly slow – taking 6-8 hours to charge fully. In the future, this could be resolved by giving motorists greater access to Direct Current (DC) Fast Chargers although this would require significant infrastructure changes and even then, there is the concern that regular use can damage battery capacity.
Another important barrier to take up of electrics cars is the impact their use could have on energy consumption. Peaks in energy demand at the end of the working day for example, when motorists arrive home from work, could place immense pressure on the grid particularly if Level 2 chargers (220v), those frequently recommended if owners don’t have access to one of the manufacturer’s charge points, are used more widely. As well as investing in grid infrastructure, it is likely that governments will need to make money available to increase energy storage and facilitate smart-charging systems.
One interesting initiative getting underway is the consortium-led Octopus Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) project, which has recently secured GBP3m of government funding for the UK’s first large-scale trial. As part of the project, 135 V2G chargers will be installed in a ‘cluster’ for electric car owners to use with the aim of finding out how much energy can be collected. It is hoped that this technology can transform the electric car into an occasional energy source.
As energy technology innovation moves into focus, it could become a key differentiator for electric car makers in the future as consumers seek charging solutions that are faster, easier to use and could even generate an income. Instead of choosing a car based on features like car parking sensors, automatic braking systems and in-car gadgetry, consumers might make their choice based on patented charging technology that might only be available from a specific manufacturer.
Shifting consumer demand will inevitably bring significant disruption for industry supply chains. Demand for components linked to exhaust and cooling systems, drivetrains and gear/shafts – all the parts associated with internal combustion engines – is likely to reduce, whilst demand for lithium, cobalt and all the components associated with light-weight electric cars will increase.
Not only will manufacturers across the supply chain have to navigate these changes carefully, they may also need to back the right battery technology to ensure they have a share of this market opportunity in the future.
Richard Gane, director and automotive sector specialist at management consultancy, Vendigital.
See also: Nissan’s Leaf EV grows up
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