If there's one thing that we can be sure of, it is that the future will not quite turn out as predicted. That's one lesson of history that seems fairly clear – just ask Nostradamus (he worked on volume and was aided by some very creative interpretation, he missed plenty) or, indeed, any automotive industry analyst or forecaster. Unforeseen events and system shocks have a habit of getting in the way. Just look at what has happened to the diesel share of the car market in Europe. No-one saw that coming ten years ago.
But how will our economy – and society – really evolve? How do we try to anticipate change and plan ahead? Well, one thing we can do is ask people how they see the future, get a sense of what things are becoming more valued, the direction of prevailing social trends. But there has to be the caveat, highlighted by Henry Ford's (attributed) remark that if he'd asked the public what they want before he came up with the Model T, they would have asked for a faster horse. Quite. The future won't simply be an extrapolation of today.
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Technological change can move fast and change things in unpredictable ways. An example: Think of the way smart phones are now embedded in our daily lives. Nobody quite foresaw that when Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone in 2007. And the Ford Nucleon (a wonderfully named atomic powered car concept, 1957) never quite made it to market. Puzzling isn't it? Not really, but hindsight is a wonderful thing, as the old saying goes.
It is still, though, an interesting exercise to tap into how we think of the future through the lens of today. It might give some directional clues. So, what do we think 2030 or 2050 will look like? Flying cars and space vacations by 2050? Why of course, they are always in there…
Research commissioned by Lexus in the US has shed some light on how Americans see the future of luxury over the next decade and beyond. From digital detox to trips into space, it appears that Americans' notions of luxury are ever evolving.
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In the recent past, mobile phones were considered a luxury – now they are ubiquitous. Notions of luxury often change with technological advancements and cultural shifts. With the start of the new decade, Lexus has shared some key findings from its most recent research on the future of luxury; specifically, what will the luxury "must have" requirements be ten years into the future? Such a survey is inevitably an extrapolation of today's world, but it does give some interesting insights into how consumers see the future as well as their priorities, needs and wants.
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By GlobalData"From the very beginning, our greatest curiosity hasn't been machines, it's been people," said Lisa Materazzo, vice president of Lexus marketing. "What moves them? What makes them tick? It's the inspiration for everything we do – from the products we craft to the dealership experience." Fair enough. So, how did this survey take place and what were the findings?
Lexus commissioned a study of more than 3,200 Americans from Gen Z to Baby Boomers. According to the study, exceptional experiences and quality top the list of demands. But new must haves have also entered into Americans' future luxury expectations, including time for the occasional "digital detox," a desire to be unique and an increased focus on wellness.
'Amazing experiences, exceptional quality'
Simply put, luxury has always been about exceptional quality and, more recently, experiences over possessions. They are the single most inherent features of luxury and are the top "must-haves" for luxury brands, according to the study findings.
Most Americans (56%), feel that luxury is better described as a lifestyle of experiences than a collection of belongings. This trend is projected to continue, as the majority of Americans (73%) believe that identifying luxury with experiences over belongings will be just as, if not more, important in the next decade.
Successful luxury brands will differentiate themselves with quality experiences and service, not just quality products.
Indeed, looking to the future, successful luxury brands will differentiate themselves with quality experiences and service, not just quality products. A full 86 percent of Americans expect luxury brands to provide exceptional experiences from being highly responsive to customers' needs, providing expert support, and focusing on the details; to the personal touch, such as knowing the customer's name and preferences and even attention to the sensory, such as scent, lighting and mood.
The new luxury: Digital detox
Americans love their digital devices and will continue to demand and value technological advances that allow them to connect more seamlessly. That said, the dependency on these devices also has many feeling the pressure to be "plugged in" at all times. This might be why, in the next decade, almost three times as many people will associate luxury with the opportunity for the occasional "digital detox"—time to voluntary refrain from social media, news, email and the internet from time-to-time.
Approximately 36 million Americans consider time to occasionally unplug from things like social media, news and email, a luxury. The survey found that younger Americans are even more inclined than older Americans to view unplugging as a luxury (35% of older Americans – Gen X and Baby Boomers; 42% of younger Americans – Gen Z and Millennials).
Personalisation
Americans want personalisation to be built into the purchase process. Thinking ahead to the future, almost all (93%) expect to see just as much, if not more, features from luxury brands allowing them to make special requests. In fact, more than half (51%) are hoping to see additional tools and innovation supporting ways to customize their online luxury orders.
Having an impact: Environment and sustainability
Most Americans expect luxury brands to have environmentally friendly manufacturing processes (81%). More than seven in 10 also believe luxury brands should act like leaders on issues surrounding sustainability (71%).
And, they are open to innovative materials to help satisfy their demand for more sustainable manufacturing practices. In fact, nearly half (48%) look to see more original materials like faux leather and lab-grown diamonds in the future.
Scrutiny on how luxury brands embody "green" behavior is expected to intensify. Looking into the future, this expectation as a luxury requirement increases by 8 percentage points, with a nearly a third (30%) saying it will be essential.
Some product categories are also held to a higher standard than others. Americans are more likely to say being environmentally friendly is more of a "must-have" for luxury brands in categories such as beauty/cosmetics, food and beverage, and automotive.
An empowered way of living: Personal enjoyment
The concept of luxury goes beyond what is tangible, with many Americans considering the freedom to enjoy oneself and focus on what's important, to be a luxury.
Those numbers are expected to increase in the next 10 years, with 51 percent saying time to enjoy oneself and 50 percent saying the freedom to focus on health and wellness will become even more of a luxury.
Looking ahead further: 2050
Thirty years from now, Americans predict mind-reading technology, space travel and flying cars will be luxury symbols. Indeed, advanced technology leads the list in terms of what luxury is expected to look like in the year 2050. Top on the list are:
- Devices for mind reading
- Space vacations
- Flying cars
- Dream recording technology
- Brain implant devices to aid memory
Meanwhile, items that are expected to be mainstream, affordable and accessible to most people by 2050 include:
- Organic, non-GMO food
- Clean air
- The ability to occasionally disable personal digital devices so one can truly "unplug"
- Medicine that is custom-made for patients based on their genetic information
So there you have it. Thank you Lexus. We can still dream of flying cars and going up in a rocket, as well as clean air. And by 2050, who knows, maybe we will be able to record the best of our dreams and re-live them.
