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US vehicle market down in November but outlook brighter

Despite November's decline, there is upward pressure on GlobalData's US market forecast.

chantellepartridge December 04 2025

According to preliminary estimates, US LV sales fell by 6.3% YoY in November, to 1.28 mn units. November 2025 had one fewer selling day than November 2024, so on a selling day-adjusted basis, sales declined by 2.6% YoY.

The daily selling rate was measured at 51.3k units/day in November, up from 47.1k units/day in October. The annualized selling rate was estimated at 15.7 mn units/year in November, up from 15.3 mn units/year in October. Retail sales were estimated at 1.06 mn units, down by 8.1% YoY, while fleet sales were thought to total 219k units, up by 3.5% YoY.

GM led the market once again in November, with total sales of 219k units, and a market share of 17.1%. However, Toyota Group sold 213k units for a 16.6% market share, closing the gap to the smallest it has been since Toyota Group last outsold GM in January 2024. Ford Group maintained its customary position in third, but with 160k units sold in November, the difference between Toyota Group and Ford Group was the widest since November 2023. Hyundai Group enjoyed a very strong month, trailing Ford Group by only around 5.5k units, and achieving a market share of 12.0%, one of the highest in the OEM’s history. At a brand level, Toyota led on 181k units, followed by Ford on 152k units and Chevrolet on 141k units.

The Toyota RAV4 returned to the top of the sales rankings in November, for the first time since August. The RAV4 sold 39.5k units, compared to 36.4k for the Ford F-150. The F-150’s volumes were the model’s lowest since February, although November has not typically been a good month for the F-150 in recent years. The Chevrolet Silverado ranked third, on 33.9k units, and the gap between the F-150 and its rival, the Silverado, was the smallest since the Silverado outsold the F-150 in March 2024. Rounding out the top five bestselling models were the Honda CR-V (29.4k units) and the Tesla Model Y (estimated at 28.7k units).

Compact Non-Premium SUV experienced robust demand in November, achieving a market share of 21.4%, the segment’s highest since March. Midsize Non-Premium SUV accounted for 16.7% of the market in November, rebounding from a dip to 16.3% in October, and up by 1.1 pp YoY. Large Pickup recorded a market share of 14.1% in November, down from 14.8% in October, which had been the highest of the year to date.

David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, said: “November 2024 was one of the strongest months of last year, and with November 2025 containing one less selling day than a year ago, expectations were set at a low level. Throw in the additional factor of a market that is still adjusting to the removal of EV tax credits, and the question was not whether US Light Vehicle sales would grow in YoY terms, but how much they would decline.

"Although results were mixed across OEMs, the overall picture appeared to be one of continued resilience. As had been the case in October, EV sales were weak, but automakers have swiftly pivoted to hybrids and combustion engine models to compensate for lost EV volumes. While tariffs are likely playing some role in suppressing sales at the margin, in November it appeared that the EV issue was the larger influence behind the YoY decline in the daily selling rate.

"Cost pressures throughout the supply chain are certainly squeezing OEM profits, but there is a sense that the consumer is not currently able to pay more for vehicles, given steep price increases over recent years. As we entered the holiday season, incentives were healthy in November, contrasting with expectations earlier in the year that automakers would be forced to throttle back on deals in Q4 due to tariffs”.

November sales surpassed expectations, putting upward pressure on our forecast. While rising prices are still a concern and will likely be a drag on sales in 2026, the ever-changing nature of the automotive industry means that it will become harder to identify whether tariffs or other factors are responsible for market performance as time goes by. For now, it appears that while sales will decline in year-on-year terms in December, demand will hold up better than we had previously assumed. We now see total 2025 sales at 16.2 mn units, up by 1.9% YoY.

This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.

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