The Western Europe car market (PV or passenger vehicle) annual selling rate improved in June to 12.0 million units/year, having struggled at around the 11 million units/year mark in previous months. PV registrations rose by 1.5% YoY to 1.2 million units in June, YTD up 3.7%.

Sales strengthened in Western Europe after a few months of subdued registration figures across the region. This could in part be an additional push for sales at the quarter-end, but, in any event, selling rates in H1 2024 have fallen short of H2 2023. We have become increasingly cautious on the full-year result as vehicle prices remain high and interest rate cuts will be modest, even though monetary easing (from the ECB, at least) has now begun. However, we continue to assume growth for 2024, having seen market expansion in H1.

The PV selling rate for Western Europe stood at 12.0 million units/year in June. In YoY terms, sales volumes were up 1.8% as the market recovered from a weak May. Western Europe volumes were still around a quarter below pre-pandemic June 2019. Our growth outlook remains positive even though full-year growth will not match the YTD performance. Monetary policy loosening and some easing in vehicle pricing is assumed to help support the market going forward.

The German PV market registered 297k units in June, a 6.1% increase YoY. The selling rate increased to 3.1 million units, comfortably up on May. Total YTD sales reached 1.5 million units. Despite sales being strong this month, a lack of EV purchase incentives continues to impact sales BEV sales. The Italian PV market recovered strongly in June as 160k units were registered, a 15.2% increase YoY. The selling rate also increased to 1.7million units. The new government EV incentive program, Eco bonus, had a central role in relaunching sales as BEV sales increased by 117% in June. The UK PV market registered 179k units in June, a 1.1% increase YoY. The selling rate increased slightly to 1.9 million units/year — the fleet sector continues to drive sales in the market as its uptake rose 14.2%.

The Spanish PV market registered 103k vehicles in June, a 2.2% improvement YoY. June’s selling rate remained broadly the same as last month at 1 million units/year. Purchases by rental companies continue to uplift the PV market as the rental channel was up 15.4% in June. France continues to see weak registration figures — headwinds to the market this year include the ending of the social leasing program and restrictions on BEV subsidies related to origin. The French PV market registered 182k units in June, a 4.8% decline YoY. France has been in political turmoil since the results of June’s European elections and with elections coming in the beginning of June, a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of this election and could lead to policy paralysis.

This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.