January saw Western Europe's car market diesel share rise very slightly from the December result – 12.3% versus 12.2% at the end of 2024. But essentially, the current picture is a flat one though we see no reason not to expect continued decline through 2025 as the market continues to move towards electrified technologies.
Prospects for the PV BEV market, already seeing improvement in January, look better than in 2024 and this will negatively impact both diesel and non-hybrid gasoline in our view.
While the PV diesel market is characterised by underlying decline, the region’s LCV diesel market share grew in 2024 versus 2023 (84.4% in 2024 versus 83.9% in 2023) as LCV BEV demand failed to grow as anticipated. Relatively short driving range – hence more working time spent recharging - and high acquisition costs have dampened LCV BEV demand and until those aspects improve, we don’t see strong growth in the near- or medium-term. In the long term, the LCV market in the EU is governed by the same CO2 reduction targets as the PV market, and so will have to adapt eventually.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
