After falling by 2% YoY in Q3 2025, ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) sales increased by 1% YoY in October, with growth observed in all countries except Indonesia.

In Indonesia, volumes contracted by 5% YoY in October—the sixth consecutive month of decline—due to weak purchasing power, an increase in VAT, tighter auto loan approvals, and political protests. Recent data indicates that November sales totaled 69k units, the same level as was achieved during the month last year. The delivery and introduction of new models from Chinese automakers, particularly BYD Auto and Chery Group, were key factors in this improvement. In addition, an aggressive sales campaign during the GAIKINDO Jakarta Auto Week at the end of November contributed positively to the month’s performance. Consequently, Indonesia's LV sales declined by 9% YoY in January-November overall.

In terms of the forecast, Indonesia's 2025 sales estimate was lowered from 730k units in our previous report to 721k units in this report owing to November sales being weaker than projected and consumers potentially delaying purchases while awaiting automotive stimulus policies. According to local media reports, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Industry have differing views on automotive incentives, with the latter arguing that such incentives are necessary to support the local industry amid weak market sentiment and to prevent layoffs.

In Malaysia, LV sales increased by 9% YoY in October, and registration data indicates that volumes in November continued to rise by 8% YoY. As a result, year-to-date (YTD) sales improved from -1% YoY in January-October to -0.1% YoY in January-November. Given that November’s performance exceeded our expectations, the outlook for Malaysia in 2025 and 2026 was raised by an average of 1% compared to our previous report. Consequently, sales are now projected at 815k units (-0.1% YoY) in 2025 and 783k units (-4% YoY) in 2026. Moreover, the near-term outlook presents upside risks as national brands begin to enter the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) segment, particularly with the recent launches of the Perodua QV-E and Proton eMas 5.

Thailand’s sales continued their upward trajectory in October, reflecting a significant 26% YoY increase. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment demonstrated remarkable resilience during the month, achieving a YoY expansion of 43%. In contrast, Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sales declined by 7% YoY. In January-October as a whole, total volumes increased by 5% YoY, with PVs up by 13% YoY and LCVs down by 14% YoY. Preliminary data suggests that the upward trend continued into November, with an estimated YoY increase of nearly 20%.

Consequently, we have revised our 2025 sales forecast for the Thai LV market upward to 604k units, reflecting a 7% YoY growth.

Nonetheless, the Thai LV market faces challenges. Recent severe flooding in southern provinces has significantly affected both citizens and businesses, disrupting travel and logistics. Additionally, escalating tensions with Cambodia, particularly evident in December, have resulted in evacuations in border areas. These factors could potentially dampen domestic vehicle demand, as consumer confidence may wane amid the prevailing uncertainty in the coming months.

Vietnam's LV sales demonstrated a robust recovery in October, with a 9% YoY increase. This contributed to a significant rise in total LV sales across January-October as a whole, which surged by 24% YoY. However, preliminary data for November indicates a decline of 4% YoY due to a high base from the same month in 2024, during which sales peaked at 68k units, driven by a temporary three-month reduction in registration fees set at 50% from September 1 to November 30, 2024. Looking ahead, the forecast for full-year 2025 has been revised upward and is now projected to reach a record high of 553k units, reflecting a 19% YoY increase.

After the Philippines' Q3 2025 sales dropped by 4% YoY due to demand being negatively impacted by typhoons and flooding, along with a price hike for Pickups under the new tax scheme implemented in July, October sales increased by 0.4% YoY and 5% MoM to 41k units, thanks to the introduction of xEV models in the market.

There is no significant change in the Philippines' LV sales outlook, as October sales aligned with our expectations. The market is projected to break a new record high this year, with growth anticipated to continue into 2026, at 4% YoY; although, based on recent information, the local association projected that the expansion next year could reach 5%. However, our forecast remains cautious due to uncertainties in global trade and the US's immigration policy, which could impact remittance inflows from Filipino overseas workers, as well as the flood control projects scandal. Media reports indicate that estimated losses due to corruption in this project have reached up to PHP118.5 billion ($2 billion) since 2023, accounting for nearly 2% of government budget spending in 2025. This situation has led to nationwide protests and increased political uncertainty.

As a result, the ASEAN 2025 sales outlook has been revised up from 3.12 million units (-0.1% YoY) in our previous report to 3.17 million units (+1.5% YoY) in this report, thanks to upward sales revisions for Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.