Veoneer (formerly part of Autoliv) says it estimates its current total order book value to be approximately USD19bn, a figure it says is in line with the estimate of more than USD19bn from the end of 2018, and 'pointing to strong sales growth ahead'.
Lifetime value of the new order intake for the full year 2019 is estimated at approximately USD2.5bn, corresponding to an average annual new order intake value of around USD550m, of which around 70% is for Active Safety orders. The lower than expected figure is mainly due to delayed timing of orders, Veoneer says, first indicated in Veoneer's earnings release for the third quarter 2019.
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Veoneer says the total order book value of approximately USD19bn has been achieved despite an average decline in the expectations for light vehicle production until 2025 of approximately 9%, compared to the expectations from one year ago. Similar to last year around 80% of the order book is for the Electronics business segment (Active Safety and Restraint Control Systems). The total order book value is calculated as the total expected sales value of all current orders.
Given the order book, Veoneer estimates its core Active Safety and Restraint Control Systems sales to grow to approximately USD2.5bn by 2022, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19%, an outperformance of the currently expected light vehicle production by more than 15%. Including its Brake Control Systems business, currently under strategic review, sales are expected to be approximately USD3.3bn and an estimated CAGR of 20%.
This compares to last 12 months net sales as of September 30, 2019 of the core business of USD1.604bn and total net sales (including the Brake Control Systems business) of USD1.982bn.
Veoneer expects to return to organic sales growth in 2020. Based on the timing of new vehicle launches, the growth is expected to be focused in the second half of the year, it says.
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