Analysts at Cox Automotive predict that the US light vehicle market (data will be out early next week) for 2019 will have exceeded 17m units for a record 5th straight year.
December sales volume is expected to fall to 1.58 million, down 3.2% or about 50,000 units from December 2018. The annual vehicle sales pace in December is expected finish near 17.2 million, up from November's 17.1 million level, but down from last December's 17.4 million.
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Sales volume for December is likely to be just enough to lift the market above 17 million units.
However, total sales in 2019 are forecast to be down more than 1% from 2018, and this negative trend is expected to continue this month, and into 2020.
Strong December sales are critical for the industry, particularly for clearing previous model year inventory from dealerships. Consumer interest peaks during the holiday shopping season and buyers take advantage of significant OEM discounts and incentives.
This year may be slightly different, according to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "One key factor for this December's results is the sales calendar. With 25 selling days, one less than last December, a sales volume decline is expected. In addition, Thanksgiving and Black Friday deals were late last month [November], shortening the holiday shopping period and possibly pulling some December vehicle buyers forward. In fact, last month's sales volume was the highest November in history, and 30,000-50,000 above recent years."
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