According to preliminary estimates, US light vehicle (LV) sales fell by 4.3% year-on-year (YoY) in October, to 1.28 million units. With the same number of selling days in October 2025 and October 2024, a direct YoY comparison was possible.
The daily selling rate was measured at 47.3k units/day in October, down from 52.1k units/day in September. The annualized selling rate was estimated at 15.4 million units/year in October, down from 16.4 million units/year in September. Retail sales were estimated at 1.13 million units, up by 0.3% YoY, while fleet sales were thought to total 149k units, down by 28.8% YoY.
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GM was once again the market leader, with total sales of 219k units, and a market share of 17.2%. However, second-placed Toyota Group, on 208k units and a 16.3% market share, was the closest it has been to unseating GM since April 2024. Ford Group came in third, with sales of almost 170k units, and a share of 13.3%. The typical rankings could once again be observed at a brand level, with Toyota coming out on top, on 178k units, ahead of Ford on 162k units and Chevrolet on 140k units. The surge in market share that Stellantis had seen in September faded somewhat in October, as the OEM accounted for 8.3% of the market, down from 8.8% in September.
The Ford F-150 retained its place at the top of the sales rankings in October, on 40.7k units, 1k ahead of the Toyota RAV4. Whereas in September the Chevrolet Equinox had been in third place, it dropped out of the top five in October, with lower sales of the EV variant to blame. Instead, the Chevrolet Silverado was third, on 35.1k units, followed by the Honda CR-V (31.7k units) and the Toyota Camry (27.0k units). The Tesla Model Y was thought to have slipped out of the top five in October, with the lack of tax credits being a hindrance, although Tesla sales are estimated due a lack of reporting from the OEM.
Compact Non-Premium SUV continued to lead the way in October, although with a market share of 21.4%, the segment saw its lowest share since June. The same was true of Midsize Non-Premium SUV, which saw its share slip to 15.9%, from 16.2% in September. The segment to gain the most in October was Large Pickup, which accounted for 14.7% of the market, the largest share that the segment has achieved in the year to date. The fact that EV Pickups, unlike some SUVs, have never gained very much traction likely meant that the ending of EV tax credits did not affect the body type significantly.
David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, said: “As the weather turned colder during October, the Light Vehicle market was also expected to cool down, and in general this proved to be the case. The loss of EV tax credits was certainly a factor in a more subdued October, with some well-known EVs suffering a sharp reduction in sales, whether in year-on-year or month-on-month terms. As such, the preliminary analysis would suggest that attempts by OEMs to keep EV sales flowing with manufacturer incentives failed to support demand in most cases. This underlines the point that the current pool of potential EV buyers is depleted, as many pulled forward purchases into Q3. Nonetheless, it should be remembered that EVs have only ever accounted for a small fraction of the market. The broader picture is that most OEMs reported steady sales outside of EVs, as the industry continued to absorb tariff costs, shielding the consumer – for now – from the majority of their impact. From this perspective, the market is still performing more robustly than would have been anticipated earlier in the year. However, one’s perception of the industry will vary depending on which OEM is in focus, with some automakers thriving and others struggling. Unsurprisingly, smaller and more import-heavy brands are currently facing more substantial headwinds”.
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Although October sales were only slightly stronger than expectations, our forecast was already on the brink of being revised upward, and we now see total 2025 sales rounding up to 16.1 million units, representing a YoY gain of around 0.8%. With that said, even this latest forecast assumes that selling rates continue to decelerate in the closing two months of the year, on the basis that tariff price rises start to feed through to a greater extent, while EV sales will be subdued. The ongoing government shutdown poses a downside risk, as economic uncertainty will increase the longer it drags on, and GDP growth will be eroded. On the other hand, Black Friday and year-end sales events could generate an upside surprise if consumers still feel sufficiently confident to make large purchases.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
