Edmunds is forecasting that this month’s US new vehicle market sales (including fleet sales) will hit 859,000 units, a 30.8% decrease compared with April 2008. However, it also says that the seasonally adjusted annualised selling rate (SAAR) will rise to 10m units.
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“Given April sales, we estimate the SAAR is up to 10m, compared with 9.1m in February,” observed Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds.com.
“The industry is slowly picking up much-needed momentum but there is still a lot of risk: a demand stimulus like a ‘cash for clunkers’ programme’ could help while an automaker bankruptcy could hurt, depending on how consumer confidence is affected.”
The combined monthly US. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.2% in April 2009, down from 48.4% in April 2008 and up from 45.1% in March 2009.
“If you like underdogs, you’ll enjoy the April forecast, since Ford market share is expected to be higher than it was this time last year and Hyundai/Kia market share should surpass Nissan,” said Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com.
“Honda is expected to have the largest month over month increase of any major manufacturer, while Toyota is expected to suffer a significant decrease since the company reduced its incentives spend, seemingly misreading the price-sensitive marketplace.”
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