This month’s new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) in the US are expected to be 1.05m units, a 2.9% decrease from January 2007 and a 23.8% decrease from December 2007, according to Edmunds.com, whose analysts are predicting a difficult first half for automakers.

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This equates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.1m units for 2008.


“Car sales were remarkably slow in January, probably in part because of dramatic stock market fluctuations that flustered consumers at a time when the housing market and other economic uncertainties were also making headlines and causing stress,” said Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis Jesse Toprak.


“Activity at dealerships began to pick up a bit toward the end of the month, pulling up the average from what would have been a much more significant decline compared with previous periods.”


Edmunds predicts that almost all automakers suffered a decline in sales in January. The month-over-month comparison is within a normal range since it is not unusual for December holidays to cause a mid-winter boost that cannot be sustained in January.

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However, the analysts pointed out that the year-over-year declines are notable.


“The first half of 2008 will be tough going for all automakers, but the second half looks more promising because of a host of interesting new products, political changes and, hopefully, a settling down of this economic roller coaster we’re on right now,” added Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com website.


The combined monthly US market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic brands is estimated to be 50.7% in January 2008, down from 51.8% a year ago and also down from 51.9% in December 2007.


Honda sales are seen down 2.3% to 103,000 units, Nissan down 1.7% to 81,000 and Toyota unchanged at 176,000.