West European car sales grew by 5% in October, though much of this gain related to the extra selling day in October 2007 (compared with 2006), according to JD Power’s analysis.

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Year-to-date the market was up 0.3%.


The forecaster said that concerns remain over how the German market (down by 4.1% in October) will perform and also over the UK, where macroeconomic slowing looks likely to take a toll in 2008.


In Italy and Spain, where the end of scrapping incentives will be a boost for 2007, 2008 is shaping up to be a weaker year.


The result for Germany – with sales down by just 4% – was an improvement in the context of falls in the year to September.

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However, the extra selling day means that the seasonally adjusted annualised measure of sales was only 3.2 mn units/year, still weak by comparison with norms for this market. With the uncertainty related to annual circulation tax likely to linger into
2008, JD Power said it does not expect the market to pick up until well into next year, though a healthy rebound could then be in the offing.


The UK market was unexpectedly strong in October at 167,000 units, 8.4% up on the previous year. Both retail and company car registrations were strong.


The forecaster warned that despite the unexpected good result for the UK it expects a sharp slow down in the UK market over the next three to six months.


The Italian market picked up speed in October, a sign perhaps that the rush to buy cars ahead of the expiry of the government scrapping incentive in December is starting to take place.


The French market remained on a slow, but steady, growth path in October. A full-year gain of 2% is estimated for 2007 with further, albeit slow, growth forecast for 2008.


For the year as a whole, JD Power forecasts West European car sales at 14.73m units – a decline of 0.3% on 2006. A further drop of 1.4% is forecast for 2008.