Petrol and diesel engines will remain the dominant power of the car industry until at least 2030 and help the UK meet the EU CO2 target of 95g/km by 2020 as sales of electric vehicles fall far short of expectation, according to a new report published today (22 April).
Although the UK’s Committee on Climate Change has previously said it would be “feasible and desirable”, to have up to 1.7m fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2020, most industry analysts predict the number will be significantly lower, according to the RAC Foundation which, together with the UK Petroleum Industry Association, commissioned the report Powering Ahead by the consultancy Ricardo-AEA.
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The RAC Foundation suggests that a CO2 target of 60g/km by 2025 would spur innovation.
The report reviews a range of market forecasts, shows even the more positive assessments foresee only 200,000 plug-in hybrid and pure battery powered cars being sold each year in the UK by 2020.
Recognising the varying assumptions made in the other reports, and after discounting the most extreme projections, Ricardo-AEA still found widely differing assessments for the scale of green car sales in 2020:
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Market share in 2020 |
Volume (based on the number of cars sold in 2012) |
Market share in 2030 |
Volume (based on the number of cars sold in 2012) |
|
Hybrids |
5-20% |
100,000 – 400,000 |
20-50% |
400,000 – 1m |
|
Plug-in hybrids |
1-5% |
20,000 – 100,000 |
15-30% |
300,000 – 600,000 |
|
Pure battery electric cars |
1-5% |
20,000 – 100,000 |
5-20% |
100,000 – 400,000 |
|
Range-extended electric cars |
1-2% |
20,000 – 40,000 |
5-20% |
100,000 – 400,000 |
Note: Figures based on analysis of 14 major studies into the take-up of low-carbon vehicles. In 2012 2,044,000 new cars were sold in the UK. Figures in the table are based on a rounded number of 2,000,000.
The report suggests that it is very difficult to predict the likely mix of technologies in the long term.
Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation, said: “Estimating future sales of electric cars is not quite like sticking the tail on the donkey, but not far from it. There are so many variables to factor in that even those paid to predict the future of low-carbon vehicles cannot agree on what is in store. The only common ground amongst the experts is that we are unlikely to see as many electric cars sold as politicians might like.”
Only major advances in battery technology will make electric cars a commercial success, he said.
“Eventually there will need to be a step change in the type of cars we drive. To help achieve this, the RAC Foundation believes a target for new car CO2 emissions of nearing 60 g/km is needed for 2025. This challenging goal would help preserve the impetus car manufacturers are already demonstrating in terms of technological advancement. Electric cars might eventually come into their own: but there is no guarantee that they won’t be beaten at their own game by other low-carbon technologies.”
